302
FXUS62 KJAX 150651
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED NEAR THE LOWER APPALACHIANS WILL
APPROACH INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FL/GA BORDER THIS
EVENING AND CLEARING NORTHEAST FL COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT A BREEZE IN
THE 5-10 MPH GOING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL
START TO PICK UP THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL WINDS/DYNAMICS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG,
AND THEREFORE THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 15
TO 20 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS ONLY TO ABOUT 25 TO 30 MPH, AND PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER.
THEREFORE, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TODAY. A VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL ALSO STRUGGLE TO MODERATE/"MOISTEN UP",
WHICH COMBINED WITH THE LACKLUSTER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP RAIN/CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LOW DESPITE PLENTIFUL DAYTIME HEATING AND A MARGINAL AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY. KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND PRIMARILY FROM ABOUT
I-10 SOUTHWARD GIVEN THE FRONTAL TIMING. OTHERWISE, JUST INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WITH ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE EVENING.
THE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE PINNED JUST
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA
LIFT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS, BUT
ALSO ALLOW VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO REACH ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL BE COMMON AREA WIDE TODAY,
WITH SOME READINGS APPROACHING 90 VERY POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FL.
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT
TOWARDS A DRY NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
CRASH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S NORTH AND WEST TO MID 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTH AND EAST
WHERE CLOUDS/SHOWERS CLEAR OUT LATER IN THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
DEEP TROUGHING WILL PIVOT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL PUSH THE COLD
FRONT THAT CROSSES OUR AREA LATER ON TUESDAY SOUTHWARD OVER THE
STRAITS OF FL BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AND COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
ALLOW OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY LOOSEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ALLOWING FOR A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP
AND PUSH INLAND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST.
FULL SUNSHINE AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL COUNTER WEAKENING COOL
AIR ADVECTION, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO MID-APRIL
CLIMATOLOGY, OR MID TO UPPER 70S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, EXCEPT
AROUND 80 FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP
COASTAL HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAKENING
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION. FORECAST LOWS HAVE
BEEN TRENDED A FEW DEGREES BELOW MODEL BLENDS, WITH MID TO UPPER
40S FORECAST INLAND, RANGING TO THE LOW TO MID 50S AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS, WHERE A SLIGHT LAND BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNRISE.
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE ON THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION FROM THE GULF. MEANWHILE,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST, RESULTING
IN NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING THAT
WILL VEER TO EASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY
BY THURSDAY EVENING. FULL SUNSHINE AND A PERSISTENT, VERY DRY AIR
MASS WILL BOOST INLAND HIGHS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, WITH LOWER 80S
FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT MID 80S FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS ON
THURSDAY, KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.
A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR MASS BENEATH CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING
EVENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING TO THE 50S INLAND ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE SHOULD YIELD LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER OUR AREA FROM
GOOD FRIDAY THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND AS TROUGHING PIVOTS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON THURSDAY AND ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL THEN
DEFLECT THIS POTENT TROUGH AND STORM SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE OZARKS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS ON
FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND WILL EXTEND ITS AXIS
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND, CREATING
DEEPENING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THAT WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY BY EASTER SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL CONTINUE INLAND, WITH BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS KEEPING COASTAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. INLAND HIGHS WILL SOAR TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S,
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS WEST OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN DEWPOINTS CRASHING THROUGH THE
50S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CHECK. THE DRY
AIR MASS WILL CREATE A LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE THIS
WEEKEND INLAND, AS DECOUPLING WINDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
ALLOW LOWS TO FALL TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE
WILL KEEP COASTAL LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THIS WEEKEND.
TROUGHING LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL FLATTEN RIDGING ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL VEER OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY, WHICH
WILL BOOST HIGHS TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS, WITH A LATER DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE RESULTING IN HIGHS
CLIMBING TO THE LOW AND MID 80S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TOUCH OFF
A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON MONDAY. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
BY NEXT TUESDAY THROUGHOUT OUR REGION AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWS ITS FORWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH
REGION-WIDE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL AIRFIELDS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS, WITH A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE IN
THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. THE EXCEPTION IS AT SSI, WHERE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS/WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL MAINLY BRING CLOUD COVER WITH IT AS WELL AS BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST ABOVE MVFR LEVELS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH CHANCES ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH AT
SGJ AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO MAINLY
OCCUR AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
A FRONT MOVES TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS EXPECTED OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
THOUGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE LOW. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER AREA WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND THEREAFTER WHILE IT SLOWLY SHIFTS TOWARDS
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK IS LOW AT AREA BEACHES TODAY WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW. RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
BECOME MORE ALONG SHORE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
WESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE TODAY, WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE
BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. STRONG
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CREATE HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES TODAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10, AS WELL AS
THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST, WITH GOOD VALUES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION INLAND ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SURFACE SPEEDS FORECAST. A
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE INTO OUR REGION,
RESULTING IN LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES NEARLY
AREA-WIDE. THESE VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH DRY
SOIL CONDITIONS TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL
CONTINUE AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY. GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES ARE FORECAST AT MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY, WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO EASTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER SPEEDS
AT INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE COUNTERED BY ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS,
YIELDING FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 81 48 75 45 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 83 56 70 55 / 0 10 0 0
JAX 87 54 76 47 / 20 20 0 0
SGJ 86 60 72 54 / 0 20 0 0
GNV 85 55 78 48 / 0 10 0 0
OCF 84 58 80 47 / 0 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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