198
FXUS62 KJAX 152340
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
740 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
BREEZY PRE-FRONTAL WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AS CLOUD COVER THICKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THERE REMAINS A 15-20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PRESSES SOUTHWARD WITH
SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FROM THE GULF
COMBINED WITH LINGERING DIURNAL INSTABILITY. RAIN CHANCES TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR
FILTERS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE GA, THEN CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NE FL
THROUGH DAYBREAK WED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES ACROSS SE GA INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50, WITH NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NE FL. TOO MUCH WIND
TONIGHT TRAILING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION FOR
ANY FOG CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN FL WEDNESDAY MORNING,
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST. A DRY FLOW FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD MORE TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A
DRY BUT COOL NIGHT, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
INLAND. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WILL COMMON CLOSER TO THE
COAST.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD AN ONSHORE FLOW. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DRY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND,
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIME-FRAME,
WITH GFS DEPICTING A STRONGER AND LITTLE FASTER COLD FRONT, WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER. IN EITHER CASE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. BUT, WITH GFS SOLUTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE
GREATER. TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF SSI WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE DUVAL TERMINALS THROUGH 02Z AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT WITH BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AFTER
06Z. WINDS FROM THE WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH SUNRISE AND LESSEN TO 5-8 KNOTS INLAND. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY
5-10 KNOTS AND TURN EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST BY
19-20Z AND LATER AT JAX AT 22Z, BUT REMAIN NORTHERLY AT INLAND
SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FL WATERS. WINDS SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION. WINDS VEER EAST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONS AND PERSISTS NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WITH MODERATE RISK WED FOR NE FL
DUE TO NORTHERLY WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH ELEVATED AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF IT. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH NE FL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE PREVAILING FEATURE AFFECTING THE AREA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER. DRY AIR WILL LEAD
TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY INLAND,
AND INTO THE 20S INLAND THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
GAUGES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN INCLUDING CHARLOTTEVILLE
AND BAXLEY WERE RISING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH CRESTS LATE THU
EVENING INTO FRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 48 74 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 57 73 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 54 77 50 80 / 10 0 0 0
SGJ 60 73 54 77 / 20 0 0 0
GNV 56 78 49 84 / 20 0 0 0
OCF 59 79 49 84 / 10 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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