921
FXUS62 KJAX 160711
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
311 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS MORNING POST COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A DRY
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. EXPECTING A BIT OF A "SURGE" IN WINDS
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL MIXING
INCREASES, HOWEVER THIS WILL THEN TEND TO SUBSIDE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
BROADENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. OTHERWISE, SUNNY SKIES
DOMINATE WITH CRISP DEW POINTS IN THE 30S INLAND AND 40S BY THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL - MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW 80S FROM
ABOUT SR-20 SOUTHWARD. A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW EASES, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND AND WONT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON TEMPS TODAY.
CLEAR SKIES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST. HAVE
DEFINITELY WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW MOST GUIDANCE AND
CLOSER IN ALIGNMENT WITH MOST MOS FORECASTS: EXPECTING 40S INLAND
AND LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AND COAST.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE ON THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION FROM THE GULF. MEANWHILE,
STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP LOCALLY EARLY IN THE MORNING, WITH WINDS QUICKLY
VEERING TO EASTERLY BY LATE MORNING AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FULL SUNSHINE AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BOOST INLAND
HIGHS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, WITH LOWER 80S FORECAST FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT MID 80S FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL. ONSHORE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS, KEEPING HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.
A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR MASS BENEATH CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING
EVENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING TO THE 50S INLAND ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE SHOULD YIELD LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER OUR AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEP TROUGHING PIVOTS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINAS, CREATING DEEPENING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA. A TIGHTENING LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CREATE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THAT WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 70S. FULL SUNSHINE AND A DRY AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS SOARING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR. THE DRY
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN DEWPOINTS CRASHING THROUGH THE 50S
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THESE INLAND LOCATIONS, KEEPING
HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE.
THE STRONGLY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVER OUR AREA WILL FOSTER
ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL TO THE UPPER 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. A SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF I-95, WHERE LOWS WILL AGAIN ONLY FALL TO THE
LOW AND MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING OVER OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL DEFLECT
A PHASING TROUGH THAT WILL BE EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES AND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, STRONG SURFACE RIDGING WILL BECOME
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA BY SATURDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDING
ITS AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH
WILL CONTINUE INLAND THIS WEEKEND, WHILE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
ON SATURDAY KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
INLAND HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S NEARLY AREA-WIDE.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL WEAKEN AS IT RE-POSITIONS ITSELF OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD ON EASTER SUNDAY, WITH THIS EVOLUTION OF
THE WEATHER PATTERN RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO
SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY. HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST, BUT A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR
MASS ALONG WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL AGAIN BOOST HIGHS TO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S INLAND, WHILE AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
KEEPS COASTAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
CLIMB TO THE LOW AND MID 60S ON SUNDAY, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES.
LONGER TERM MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE FL PENINSULA BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD, WHICH SHOULD YIELD A MORE
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BY MIDWEEK. MODEL BLENDS DEPICT ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY, WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN A LATER DEVELOPING AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS, WHERE HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE
MID 80S. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REACH THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
THEN POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS PWATS
CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS SEEMS A
BIT AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.,
AS RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SHOULD DIRECT A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE
DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TOWARD OUR AREA. ABOVE NORMAL
WARMTH IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY INCREASES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING
CLOUD COVER FROM FL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE,
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 6-9 HOURS, WHICH WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING. WINDS AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE 10 KNOTS WILL AFFECT ALL AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH A SEA BREEZE MOVING SLIGHTLY INLAND AS WELL AND
SHIFTING WIND DIRECTION AT SSI/SGJ/CRG/JAX. WINDS SUBSIDE AROUND
AND AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NO
OPERATIONAL CONCERNS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL RESULT IN WINDS AT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH THIS
MORNING BEFORE EASING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SHIFT WINDS FROM
NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY. WINDS VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS
AND PERSISTS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE TODAY AND THURSDAY
WITH INCREASINGLY ONSHORE WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WHERE LONG
DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH
DRY SOIL CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
RED FLAG CRITERIA AT INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. BREEZY NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON
AT INLAND LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE, SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL
COAST. GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TODAY.
NORTHEASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR ENTIRE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS SHIFTING TO
EASTERLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE
AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS ON
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS WILL YIELD GOOD DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES AT MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
GAUGES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN INCLUDING CHARLOTTEVILLE
AND BAXLEY WERE RISING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH CRESTS LATE THU
EVENING INTO FRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 75 45 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 74 55 75 63 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 78 49 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 75 55 76 64 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 80 47 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 81 47 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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