540
FXUS62 KJAX 011525
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1125 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
..ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AT INLAND LOCATIONS
..MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES
..SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS THIS WEEKEND
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1126 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1024
MILLIBARS) CENTERED TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA, WITH THIS FEATURE
EXTENDING ITS AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. MEANWHILE, A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THE PLAINS STATES. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDING THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO, THE FL PENINSULA, AND
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO DEFLECT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, WITH WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN ENTERING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A CUMULUS
FIELD HAS DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL, WHILE FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. A SHIELD
OF THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS OUR AREA. A DRY
AND SUBSIDENT AIR MASS, ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, WAS
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE TO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE AS
OF 15Z AT MOST LOCATIONS, WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY FALLING TO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TAKES SHAPE AND BEGINS ITS
INLAND MARCH. OTHERWISE, A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AT INLAND LOCATIONS
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS SOARING TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE THE SEA BREEZE KEEPS COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS CRASHING THROUGH THE 50S AT INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CHECK AND NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON.
MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE OUR SKIES THIS EVENING, WITH THIS CLOUD
COVER THEN EXITING THE ATLANTIC COAST TOWARDS SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
CONCERNS FOR A MIXTURE OF SMOKE AND FOG REMAIN WITHIN THE OCALA
NATIONAL FOREST, WHERE SEVERAL WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO BURN IN AN
AREA THAT IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS BEING IN "EXTREME" DROUGHT PER
TODAY'S COLLABORATED UPDATE OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR.
TRAVELERS ALONG STATE ROAD 40 IN EASTERN MARION COUNTY SHOULD BE
AWARE OF POSSIBLE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, WINDS AT INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES,
WITH A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WILL KEEP COASTAL LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHING INTO THE US 301 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER
80S/NEAR 90F OVER INLAND AREAS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES AND I-95 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL CHANCES
REMAIN BELOW 20% ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES
INLAND.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO WEAKEN, BUT STILL
EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SE TO S WINDS AT THE SURFACE. LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE
60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING OVER INLAND AREAS, BUT
DRY SOIL CONDITIONS WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT FOG TO A MINIMUM.
SATURDAY: COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 80S/NEAR 90F OVER ALL INLAND AREAS, WITH THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
FRONT BEING HELD TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION TO HELP
TRIGGER SOME PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AREA-WIDE, BUT MOSTLY FOCUSED ALONG INLAND MOVING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC. A FEW STRONG
STORMS FROM THESE INTERACTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS INTO THE
LOCAL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BUT LIKELY BECOME
MORE ISOLATED DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AND WILL HOLD MIN TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER
60S OVER INLAND AREAS AND AROUND 70F ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SUNDAY: SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT NOT BEFORE
DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION IS ABLE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE, ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS COASTAL NE
FL COUNTIES. A FEW STRONG STORMS FROM THESE INTERACTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND SE GA AND LOWER 60S COASTAL SE GA/INLAND NE FL AND
MID/UPPER 60S FOR COASTAL NE FL COUNTIES.
MONDAY/TUESDAY: MODELS ARE TRENDING MUCH DRIER AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL NE FL/SE GA AREA AND
SHUNTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE NE AND E IS STILL ON TRACK BUT NOT AS STRONG AS IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND OVERALL RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LIKELY END UP
ONLY AROUND 20% PERCENT, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A FEW COASTAL
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH DAY AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. MAX TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND
60S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
WEDNESDAY: SOME INDICATION FROM THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS THAT
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HELP TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS PUSH INLAND. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S OVER INLAND AREAS AND
LOWER 80S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. NOT A TON OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO FLIP-FLOP ON HOW FAR SOUTHWARD THE WEEKEND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ENDS UP ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA OR WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ANY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z FRIDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS ON FRIDAY AT VQQ AS MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD
COVER EXITS OUR REGION. LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BY 14Z, WITH THESE WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT THE SSI AND
SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS TOWARDS 16Z. SPEEDS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS BY 18Z, WHILE SPEEDS WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 10-15 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY 18Z AS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES INLAND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PASS ACROSS
VQQ AND GNV AFTER 21Z, SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BE
SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KNOTS TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1126 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS OUR
LOCAL WATERS, WITH EVENING WIND SURGES BRINGING SPEEDS UP TO
CAUTION LEVELS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL
PREVAIL BOTH NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND, ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
RIP CURRENTS: PREVAILING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL TO CREATE A MODERATE RISK
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AT ALL AREA BEACHES. A HIGHER END
MODERATE RISK IS POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS ONSHORE WINDS STRENGTHEN AND SURF
HEIGHTS BUILD FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1126 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 90
DEGREES, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO NEAR CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS, AND SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL.
SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY, EXCEPT
FOR LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
GA. BREEZY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES INLAND.
THESE WINDS WILL CREATE FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES.
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AND ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS
ON SATURDAY WILL CREATE VERY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA, WITH HIGH VALUES EXPECTED FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND GOOD VALUES
ELSEWHERE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 88 59 90 63 / 0 0 20 10
SSI 83 67 84 69 / 0 0 10 10
JAX 88 60 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 84 65 85 67 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 89 60 90 63 / 0 0 10 10
OCF 90 60 91 64 / 0 0 10 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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