044
FXUS62 KJAX 011850
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
..ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AT INLAND LOCATIONS
..MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES
...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH MONDAY...
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1024
MILLIBARS) CENTERED TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA, WITH THIS FEATURE
EXTENDING ITS AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. MEANWHILE, A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THE PLAINS STATES. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDING THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO, THE FL PENINSULA, AND
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO DEFLECT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, WITH WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN ENTERING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A PALTRY
CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95
THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE HAS
PUSHED THIS CUMULUS FIELD WEST OF AREA BEACHES. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY
THIN CIRRUS CLOUD COVER SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGE ARE PROGRESSING ACROSS OUR AREA. INLAND TEMPERATURES AT 19Z
WERE CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOW AND MIDDLE 80S, AND DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 55-60 RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS. BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PASSAGE WERE
KEEPING COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S, WHERE
DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MID AND
HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE
WEST OF OUR AREA WILL TRAVERSE OUR SKIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THIS CLOUD COVER THEN EXITING
THE ATLANTIC COAST TOWARDS SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. WINDS AT INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES,
WITH A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WILL KEEP COASTAL LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
CONCERNS FOR A MIXTURE OF SMOKE AND FOG REMAIN WITHIN THE OCALA
NATIONAL FOREST, WHERE SEVERAL WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO BURN IN AN
AREA THAT IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS BEING IN "EXTREME" DROUGHT PER
TODAY'S COLLABORATED UPDATE OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR. TRAVELERS
ALONG STATE ROAD 40 IN EASTERN MARION COUNTY SHOULD BE AWARE OF
POSSIBLE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE INITIALLY IN PLACE FRIDAY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING IN FROM OUT OF THE
EAST GRADUALLY LESSENING AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY, AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING IN FROM OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY
EVENING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR INLAND
AREAS AND INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE ST JOHNS
RIVER.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MOVES TO CROSS OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME
CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MIDWEEK AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE RECEDES TO THE NORTH RESULTING IN INCREASED MOISTURE
LEVELS ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM OUT OF THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH
MAX TEMPS RISING TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z FRIDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS ON FRIDAY AT VQQ AS MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD
COVER EXITS OUR REGION. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KNOTS AT THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 03Z, FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING TO
SOUTHERLY WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON, REACHING GNV TOWARDS 00Z. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 5-10 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH AROUND 02Z.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY, WITH
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
TOWARDS 17Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS OUR
LOCAL WATERS, WITH EVENING WIND SURGES BRINGING SPEEDS UP TO
CAUTION LEVELS. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT OUR
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND, ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
GEORGIA WATERS ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE STALLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS ON MONDAY. ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES OVER THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL TO CREATE A MODERATE RISK THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AT ALL AREA BEACHES. A HIGHER END MODERATE
RISK IS POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES LATE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS ONSHORE WINDS STRENGTHEN AND SURF HEIGHTS
BUILD FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1126 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 90
DEGREES, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO NEAR CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS, AND SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL.
SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY, EXCEPT
FOR LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
GA. BREEZY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES INLAND.
THESE WINDS WILL CREATE FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES.
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AND ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS
ON SATURDAY WILL CREATE VERY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA, WITH HIGH VALUES EXPECTED FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND GOOD VALUES
ELSEWHERE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 59 90 63 88 / 0 20 10 40
SSI 67 84 69 82 / 0 10 0 30
JAX 60 89 63 88 / 0 0 0 30
SGJ 65 85 67 86 / 0 0 0 30
GNV 60 90 63 89 / 0 10 10 30
OCF 60 91 64 90 / 0 10 10 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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