361
FXUS62 KJAX 021306
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
906 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 903 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT COUPLED WITH SEA
BREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT THE
HIGHS, TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FURTHER INLAND.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN PLAY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DRAGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SE
CONUS AND TOWARDS SE GA AND NE FL. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY OF THE
WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. INLAND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING THE 90S,
WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S THANKS TO THE SEA
BREEZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SE GA DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS AS LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL HELP FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. DIURNAL INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO THE SEA BREEZE
COULD HELP TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA, SE GA IN PARTICULAR COULD SEE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE, IN
ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
SUNDAY, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA PUSHING THROUGH BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY THE MORNING AND
BECOME NUMEROUS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SEA BREEZES BEGIN TO MOVE
INLAND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
THE SEA BREEZE INTERACT, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY SOME HAIL. MOST
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES OFFSHORE. WITH THE PASSING FRONT, IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS
FOR MOST OF THE DAY, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL WITH THE BUILDING OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE
EASTERN LOCATIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AS ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST-
EAST PUSHES THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE INLAND. BY TUESDAY, THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD, CLEARING NORTH CENTRAL FL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO AREA, BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. LATEST MODEL RUNS, STILL SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. QUESTION STILL REMAINS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO TRIGGER ANY SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT AS DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. FOR NOW, POPS REMAIN BELOW
15% ON WEDNESDAY. COME THURSDAY, MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD, LEAVING THE WAY OPEN FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, BRINGING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN FOR OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SE WINDS DEVELOP WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPING THROUGH 16Z AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
BEGINS TO SHIFT INLAND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 10-13
KTS AND GUSTS 15-20 KTS AT COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH 00-02Z. LOW
(< 15%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A STORM NEAR GNV 20Z-00Z, TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY
AND SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
WEEKEND. THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY CONTINUED ELEVATED DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY WITH A RETURN OF
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND SATURDAY FOR
ALL LOCAL BEACHES WITH ELEVATED SE WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE, MIN RHS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WILL DIP INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON, THEN WILL TICK UP
SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEARS THE AREA. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MERGERS OF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC ALONG
WESTERN INLAND LOCATIONS AROUND THE I-75 CORRIDOR. AHEAD OF THIS
WEEKEND'S COLD FRONT, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA POTENTIALLY HAVING ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 88 63 87 64 / 20 10 30 50
SSI 80 70 82 69 / 0 0 20 40
JAX 86 66 88 66 / 0 0 20 30
SGJ 83 66 85 68 / 0 0 20 40
GNV 88 64 89 65 / 20 20 30 30
OCF 89 64 89 66 / 20 20 20 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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