903
FXUS62 KJAX 030118
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
918 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 913 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION NEVER CAME TO FRUITION TODAY AS A
VERY DRY AIR MASS LINGERS IN THE LOW LEVELS. OVERALL NO MAJOR
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING, WITH A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT
EXPECTED AND JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS OR SO FROM THE GULF. SHOWERS INCREASE OVERNIGHT
WELL OFFSHORE TO THE EAST OVER THE WATERS AS A COASTAL
TROUGH/PSEUDO WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD, THOUGH EXPECT THE AREA
TO OTHERWISE REMAIN PRECIP FREE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING, SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS, AND A
WEAK UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT THE COAST DUE
TO PROXIMITY TO THE RELATIVELY WARMER OCEAN, AND LOWER TO MID 60S
INLAND.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE
AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO GA AND THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH PWATS TO NEAR 1.25 TO 1.5
INCHES SATURDAY WITH THE FLOW BEING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD THE
TROUGH AND SFC FRONT. THE TROUGH AND MOISTURE WILL HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
SFC FORCING MECHANISMS, ONE BEING THE FRONT ITSELF LATER IN THE
PERIOD AND THE OTHER BEING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE BETTER CHANCE
OF ANY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED. MLCAPE UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG AND BULK
SHEAR NEAR 25 KT SUGGEST SOME WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION SO WE CAN'T
RULE OUT A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. SPC HAS
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR SOUTHEAST GA SAT-SAT NIGHT.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EXPECTED, WITH SFC WINDS
AVERAGING FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 10-15 MPH.
AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, SLIGHTLY DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WE ANTICIPATE A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED FROM EAST
CENTRAL GA TO THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE. MILD TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SUNDAY, THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND 500 MB OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL LIFT GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST, WHILE THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING BUT DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO EVEN HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
AREA. A SMALL OVERLAP OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
COULD RESULT IN A STRONG/SEVERE STORM OVER A PART OF OUR AREA.
FAIR TO MODERATE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN LOWER MAX TEMPS,
WITH HIGHS FROM 80-85 DEG.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
GA AND THE SUWANEE VALLEY AREA, POSSIBLY A LITTLE FURTHER EAST BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT, BUT MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL
HAVE MOVED OUT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FORCING LIFTS OUT
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. LOWS PROBABLY WILL DIP A BIT LOWER
COMPARED TO SAT NIGHT, OWING TO PRECIP-COOLED AIR AND THE COLD
FRONT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THE WEAKENED COLD FRONT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST FL ON MONDAY BUT
MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED BUT WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY. MAY NEED TO TWEAK THESE CHANCES
DOWN A BIT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS BUT SEA BREEZE AND LINGERING
MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A CHANCE MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND
INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL NEAR THE FRONT.
BY TUESDAY, THE FRONT IS DIFFUSE BUT THIS BOUNDARY MAY START
MOVING BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT.
THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY DESPITE THE SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO
WE HAVE LOW POPS AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. CLOUDS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
THE GULF COAST AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, THERE ARE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FL AND SOUTH GA AND
SOME POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES ALOFT AS THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL.
MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY. FOR
NOW, JUST SHOWING LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THE
25-45 PERCENT RANGE.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY BUT INCREASE TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15-20 KNOTS AT THE COAST AND 8-10
KNOTS INLAND THROUGH 03Z UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE PLACED
TEMPO RESTRICTIONS AT VQQ AFTER 07Z FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG, BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE WILL PRESS ONSHORE
MIDDAY AND THROUGH CRG AND JAX THROUGH 20Z, WITH WINDS CHANGING
TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10-15 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA FROM
A CENTER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL
LINGER JUST TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST TUESDAY, BEFORE LIFTING BACK
ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
POCKETS OF MIN RH TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR INLAND AREAS
BUT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. FOR THE WEEKEND, THERE WILL BE
SOME MOISTURE INFLUX TO THE AREA AND NO CRITICAL RH VALUES EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE HIGH ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOPEFULLY WITH THIS FRONT COMING INTO THE
AREA, WE CAN GET SOME MUCH NEEDED WETTING RAINFALL INTO AT LEAST
A FEW AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 63 86 64 81 / 10 30 70 60
SSI 70 82 69 81 / 0 40 60 70
JAX 65 87 66 85 / 0 40 40 80
SGJ 67 86 68 84 / 0 40 40 80
GNV 64 88 65 84 / 10 40 40 90
OCF 65 88 66 85 / 10 40 40 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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