503
FXUS62 KJAX 031125
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
725 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
A TRANSITION TO SW STEERING FLOW BEGINS TODAY WITH INCREASING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWAT) RISE ABOVE
CLIMO TO 1.2 TO 1.4" INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL LIFT COURTESY OF A
DOMINANT WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FAVOR
20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, TRACKING TOWARD THE EAST
COAST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT INLAND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
4 PM TO 6 PM. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW MERGERS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY PRESSING OFFSHORE
THROUGH 9 PM.
A FEW STRONG TO PULSE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
BOUNDARIES MERGE, WITH THE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
ACROSS SE GA WHERE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEARS 30 KTS UNDER RELATIVELY
COOL 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -13 DEG/C (CLIMO IS -11.3 DEGC),
WHICH FAVOR HAIL POTENTIAL AND RESULTANT GUSTY DOWNBURSTS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS SE GA HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A "MARGINAL
RISK" OR LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY.
RAINFALL TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AFTER SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION PRESSES OFFSHORE, WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN SE GA ZONES AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
APPROACH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DEEPENING
MID LEVEL TROUGH. BETWEEN 00-06Z, SOME HIGH- RESOLUTION CAMS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR A A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE GA
(WNW OF WAYCROSS) SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHERE
STRONGER SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS COINCIDES OVER ELEVATED SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY NOSING INLAND FROM THE GULF WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS NE FL THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY
AND SHIFT TOWARD THE SE GA ATLANTIC COAST, WITH ISOLATED STRONG
STORM POTENTIAL SHIFTING ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NE FL
THROUGH DAYBREAK WHERE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY NUDGES INLAND UNDER
WSW WINDS FROM THE GULF.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WITH A FOCUS FOR THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
EAST COAST GIVEN THE SW STEERING FLOW. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE 60S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
IT SLOW TREK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, PUSHING THROUGH TOWARDS NORTH
CENTRAL FL BY THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. WITH THE FRONT DRAPED
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGES OF SE GA AND NE FL, SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED. THE CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NE FL AND ALONG COASTAL
LOCATIONS OF SE GA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR IN ADDITION TO VEERING VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, LIKELY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AS IT
MAKES ITS WAY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG DAMAGING
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAIL.
WITH LITTLE PROGRESS IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT, LINGERING
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL WITH THE BUILDING OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWER CHANCES ALONG
LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL FL AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
JACKSONVILLE METRO AREA. INTERACTIONS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY SEE A FEW STORMS POP UP ALONG
NORTH CENTRAL FL AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
BY TUESDAY, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD, SITUATED
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF NORTH CENTRAL FL WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA, BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. BY THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY, MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH.
QUESTION STILL REMAINS IF THERE WILL BE MUCH SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE FL/ GA BORDER TO NORTH OF SE GA. FOR
NOW, POPS AROUND THE 25% TO 35% RANGE FOR AROUND THE STATE LINE
AND NORTH INTO SE GA. COME THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SE GA. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
CHANCES STEADILY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, AND COULD LEAD TO
RESTRICTIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL AND
LINGER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY WITH CONTINUED
ELEVATED SE WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY, LOW RISK EXPECTED
WITH SSW WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, WITH INCREASING TRANSPORT WINDS RESULTING IN HIGH
DISPERSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD, WILL
RESULT IN MIN RHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WHILE LOWER
40S ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA POTENTIALLY HAVING ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS
THE FRONT SLOWLY TREKS SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST FL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 86 64 81 57 / 30 70 40 10
SSI 82 68 81 65 / 40 40 70 30
JAX 88 67 84 63 / 40 40 70 20
SGJ 86 68 84 66 / 50 30 80 30
GNV 88 66 83 62 / 30 40 80 10
OCF 88 67 84 64 / 30 50 80 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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