129
FXUS62 KJAX 031712
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
112 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 831 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH, COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION. THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ACROSS
SE GA WHERE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ADD TO INSTABILITY, AND ALONG THE
EAST COAST DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER SE GA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S COAST, TO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S INLAND.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
IT SLOW TREK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, PUSHING THROUGH TOWARDS NORTH
CENTRAL FL BY THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. WITH THE FRONT DRAPED
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGES OF SE GA AND NE FL, SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED. THE CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NE FL AND ALONG COASTAL
LOCATIONS OF SE GA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR IN ADDITION TO VEERING VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, LIKELY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AS IT
MAKES ITS WAY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG DAMAGING
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAIL.
WITH LITTLE PROGRESS IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT, LINGERING
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL WITH THE BUILDING OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWER CHANCES ALONG
LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL FL AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
JACKSONVILLE METRO AREA. INTERACTIONS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY SEE A FEW STORMS POP UP ALONG
NORTH CENTRAL FL AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
BY TUESDAY, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD, SITUATED
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF NORTH CENTRAL FL WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA, BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. BY THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY, MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH.
QUESTION STILL REMAINS IF THERE WILL BE MUCH SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE FL/ GA BORDER TO NORTH OF SE GA. FOR
NOW, POPS AROUND THE 25% TO 35% RANGE FOR AROUND THE STATE LINE
AND NORTH INTO SE GA. COME THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SE GA. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
CHANCES STEADILY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING, THEN
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. RESTRICTIONS IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL AND
LINGER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY WITH CONTINUED
ELEVATED SE WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY, LOW RISK EXPECTED
WITH SSW WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, WITH INCREASING TRANSPORT WINDS RESULTING IN HIGH
DISPERSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD, WILL
RESULT IN MIN RHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WHILE LOWER
40S ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA POTENTIALLY HAVING ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS
THE FRONT SLOWLY TREKS SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST FL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 81 57 83 / 50 40 10 10
SSI 67 81 65 81 / 30 70 30 10
JAX 65 84 63 86 / 30 70 20 20
SGJ 67 84 66 83 / 30 80 30 40
GNV 65 83 62 86 / 40 80 10 40
OCF 65 84 64 87 / 50 80 20 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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