666
FXUS62 KJAX 032355
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
755 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
ISOLATED, BRIEF SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INDICATE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH VICINITY COVERAGE EXPECTED. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
06Z. THIS LINE MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGIONAL
TERMINALS, WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS AT GNV TOWARDS 10Z, WITH CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. PROB30
GROUPS WERE USED AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE PREDAWN AND MORNING
HOURS TO INDICATE MVFR CONDITIONS AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS
OUR AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN REDEVELOP DURING
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
IMPACTS AT GNV, WHERE VICINITY COVERAGE WAS MAINTAINED. PROB30
GROUPS FOR BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AND DOWNPOURS WERE USED ELSEWHERE AFTER 17Z SUNDAY.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 06Z. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TOWARDS SUNRISE, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY 16Z. A
PINNED ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SURFACE WINDS TO
SOUTHERLY AT THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 17Z.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH, COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
BE ACROSS SE GA WHERE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ADD TO INSTABILITY, AND
ALONG THE EAST COAST DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER SE GA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S COAST, TO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S INLAND.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND, TO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S COAST.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL JUST BE ENTERING OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT
ENTERS OUR AREA. CAM MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE MORNING MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
WITH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY INCREASING GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING. EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ABOUT 25 TO AROUND 30 KT MAY SUPPORT SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION AMIDST MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG, MAINLY
TOWARD THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MAY PROVIDE BETTER UPWARD
MOTIONS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ANTICIPATED.
SUNDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION SHOULD WANE IN THE EVENING OVER THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST ZONES AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH TO ABOUT A ST AUGUSTINE TO GAINESVILLE
LINE. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD MARION, PUTNAM, AND
ALACHUA COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S OVER SOUTHEAST
GA WHERE LESS CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT, AND ABOUT 60-65 DEG FOR
NORTHEAST FL AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA.
MONDAY, REMNANTS OF THE WEAK FRONT OVER NORTHEAST FL STALLS OUT
BUT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AS THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT
AND HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE REGION. SOME LOW-END CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LINGER ON MONDAY MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST FL, BUT THE
AIRMASS IS DRIER COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND WITH PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
AROUND 1.2 INCHES CENTERED FROM MARION, PUTNAM, TO FLAGLER
COUNTIES, WHERE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE WORSE COMPARED TO THE
REST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY NIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE REMNANT FRONT DRIFTING SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. LOOKS MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH, AND LOWER TO MID 60S COAST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER GA AND SC HEADS NORTHEAST. PROBABLY
TOO DRY FOR MUCH OF ANY MENTIONABLE PRECIP AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT RIDE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY ON WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT LINGERS OVER PARTS OF GA AND WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MID TO LATE WEEK, WE HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY, IT MAY BE
A BIT OPTIMISTIC, BUT A NEW COLD FRONT AND THE REMNANT FRONT OVER
GA ALONG WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LOOKS TO SUPPORT AN
EVEN BETTER SETUP FOR RAIN...SO WE ARE ADVERTISING GOOD RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS PERIOD OF ABOUT 40-65 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
GIVEN THE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER, BUT BY THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY, THE PRESENCE OF MORE CLOUDS, LOWERING 700 MB AND 850 MB
HEIGHTS, AND ADDED SHOWERS AND STORMS THE MAX TEMPS WILL BE
LOWERING TOWARD NORMAL. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO REGION TONIGHT, AND SLOWLY CROSS AREA
WATERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF AREA MONDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ACROSS AREA AS A WARM FRONT MID
WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE TODAY, LOW SUNDAY
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS BESIDES SOME
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF ABOUT 25 MPH.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY HELP GIVEN THE RECENT DRY SPELL OVER THE
AREA. UNFORTUNATELY, WE DRY OUT AGAIN FOR MOST AREAS MON-TUE,
WITH SOME UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING BY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 82 56 82 / 50 30 0 0
SSI 67 81 62 82 / 30 60 30 10
JAX 65 86 61 85 / 30 60 20 20
SGJ 67 86 65 84 / 30 70 30 40
GNV 65 85 61 87 / 40 60 10 30
OCF 65 85 63 88 / 50 60 20 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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