698
FXUS62 KJAX 040156
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
956 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE T'STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE T'STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
..DRIER AIR MASS OVERSPREADS OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 957 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE (1006
MILLIBARS) POSITIONED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE PLAINS STATES IN THE WAKE
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. ALOFT...CUTOFF TROUGHING OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WAS DIGGING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH RIDGING OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
AND THE PLAINS STATES FORMING AN "OMEGA" BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS
THE COUNTRY. OTHERWISE, A 100-KNOT JET STREAK AT 250 MILLIBARS
(AROUND 35,000 FEET) WAS NOSING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST, WITH THIS FEATURE PROVIDING ENHANCED DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT
WAS FOSTERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND BIG
BEND REGION. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER REMAINS
IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
AREA, WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE LOCALLY, AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S AS OF
02Z.
CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/BIG BEND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN LINE AS IT APPROACHES THE
SUWANNEE/ALAPAHA/OCMULGEE RIVERS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A DEVELOPING 30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 850 MILLIBARS (AROUND
5,000 FEET) SHOULD PROPEL THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTHEAST GA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH BULK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR VALUES
WILL REMAIN AROUND 40 KNOTS, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, SMALL
HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THIS CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND NORTH CENTRAL FL TOWARDS SUNRISE, LIKELY
PROVIDING SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR OUR DROUGHT STRICKEN AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREA-WIDE.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL JUST BE ENTERING OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT
ENTERS OUR AREA. CAM MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE MORNING MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
WITH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY INCREASING GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING. EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ABOUT 25 TO AROUND 30 KT MAY SUPPORT SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION AMIDST MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG, MAINLY
TOWARD THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MAY PROVIDE BETTER UPWARD
MOTIONS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ANTICIPATED.
SUNDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION SHOULD WANE IN THE EVENING OVER THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST ZONES AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH TO ABOUT A ST AUGUSTINE TO GAINESVILLE
LINE. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD MARION, PUTNAM, AND
ALACHUA COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S OVER SOUTHEAST
GA WHERE LESS CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT, AND ABOUT 60-65 DEG FOR
NORTHEAST FL AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA.
MONDAY, REMNANTS OF THE WEAK FRONT OVER NORTHEAST FL STALLS OUT
BUT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AS THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT
AND HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE REGION. SOME LOW-END CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LINGER ON MONDAY MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST FL, BUT THE
AIRMASS IS DRIER COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND WITH PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
AROUND 1.2 INCHES CENTERED FROM MARION, PUTNAM, TO FLAGLER
COUNTIES, WHERE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE WORSE COMPARED TO THE
REST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY NIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE REMNANT FRONT DRIFTING SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. LOOKS MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH, AND LOWER TO MID 60S COAST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER GA AND SC HEADS NORTHEAST. PROBABLY
TOO DRY FOR MUCH OF ANY MENTIONABLE PRECIP AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT RIDE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY ON WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT LINGERS OVER PARTS OF GA AND WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MID TO LATE WEEK, WE HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY, IT MAY BE
A BIT OPTIMISTIC, BUT A NEW COLD FRONT AND THE REMNANT FRONT OVER
GA ALONG WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LOOKS TO SUPPORT AN
EVEN BETTER SETUP FOR RAIN...SO WE ARE ADVERTISING GOOD RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS PERIOD OF ABOUT 40-65 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
GIVEN THE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER, BUT BY THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY, THE PRESENCE OF MORE CLOUDS, LOWERING 700 MB AND 850 MB
HEIGHTS, AND ADDED SHOWERS AND STORMS THE MAX TEMPS WILL BE
LOWERING TOWARD NORMAL. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
ISOLATED, BRIEF SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INDICATE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH VICINITY COVERAGE EXPECTED. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
06Z. THIS LINE MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGIONAL
TERMINALS, WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS AT GNV TOWARDS 10Z, WITH CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. PROB30
GROUPS WERE USED AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE PREDAWN AND MORNING
HOURS TO INDICATE MVFR CONDITIONS AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS
OUR AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN REDEVELOP DURING
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
IMPACTS AT GNV, WHERE VICINITY COVERAGE WAS MAINTAINED. PROB30
GROUPS FOR BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AND DOWNPOURS WERE USED ELSEWHERE AFTER 17Z SUNDAY.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 06Z. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TOWARDS SUNRISE, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY 16Z. A
PINNED ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SURFACE WINDS TO
SOUTHERLY AT THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 17Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 957 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT WILL
BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR LOCAL
WATERS ON SUNDAY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION BOTH
NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING DUE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
15-20 KNOTS, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW CAUTION LEVELS
NEAR SHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS OF 3-5 FEET WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY NEAR SHORE. CAUTION LEVEL SEAS OF 4-6 FEET OFFSHORE TONIGHT
WILL SUBSIDE TO THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MONDAY,
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK OVER OUR
LOCAL WATERS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY POSSIBLE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST.
RIP CURRENTS: GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A LINGERING SOUTHEASTERLY
OCEAN SWELL WILL KEEP A LOWER-END MODERATE RISK IN PLACE AT AREA
BEACHES ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 957 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE VERY HIGH
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GOOD TO MARGINALLY HIGH
VALUES FORECAST ELSEWHERE.A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO AREAS
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF WAYCROSS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. BREEZY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED MIXING
HEIGHTS ON MONDAY TO PRODUCE HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT
INLAND LOCATIONS. A DRY AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF OUR
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY DROPPING HUMIDITY VALUES TO
AROUND 30 PERCENT AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY TUESDAY, ELEVATED
MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES AT INLAND LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 64 82 52 84 / 50 30 0 0
SSI 69 83 62 82 / 30 60 10 10
JAX 67 84 57 87 / 30 60 10 20
SGJ 69 86 63 84 / 30 70 20 40
GNV 66 85 58 88 / 40 50 10 30
OCF 67 85 60 89 / 40 60 20 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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