250
FXUS62 KJAX 041336
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
936 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS NOTED FROM INLAND SOUTHEAST GA TO THE FL
PANHANDLE BETWEEN LIVE OAK AND TALLAHASSEE. THIS IS NOTED BY
STRATUS AND FOG NEAR THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST
AND SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE EARLIER CONVECTION THIS MORNING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND CLOUDINESS OVER NORTHEAST FL WILL AT LEAST SLOW
DOWN SOME OF THE HEATING TODAY. WE STILL ANTICIPATE SOME REDEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION TODAY, AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS
CLOSER TO THE COAST OR ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES TODAY. MODIFIED
SOUNDING FROM THE RAP SHOWED 1650 J/KG, DCAPE NEAR 700-1000 J/KG,
AND MORE THAN SUFFICIENT CAPE ALOFT FOR SOME HAIL PRODUCTION. BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF ABOUT 30 KT IS NOTED. MODELS SHOW SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER ABOUT 17Z/18Z PRIMARILY ACROSS
NORTHEAST FL. INITIAL ESTIMATE FOR HAIL THREAT IS FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL GIVEN LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MLCAPE IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE. APPEARS THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE PROBABLY BE TIED
MORE CLOSELY TO THE BOUNDARIES, WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THE
MAIN PLAYER TODAY SO THE BEACHES AND MARINE WATERS COULD BE UNDER
A GREATER THREAT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE MID TO LATE
EVENING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS REDEVELOP. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER THE LOCAL MARINE WATERS COULD LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
STORMY WEATHER TO START THE DAY WITH PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS UNDER MOIST SW STEERING FLOW AND ELEVATED
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY NOSING INLAND FROM THE GULF. ALOFT, BELOW
NORMAL 500 MB TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING INTO THE -12 TO -14 DEGC
RANGE WITH INCREASING BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WITH DIFFLUENCE
DOWNSTREAM OF A DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
ALL THESE PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE A HAIL AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WIND
THREAT IN CELLS THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND
EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COAST AND TRANSITION SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NE FL THROUGH 9 TO 11 AM. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN
INITIALIZING WELL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS, AND LEANED TOWARD ITS
DEPICTION FOR PRECIPITATION TIMING.
THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RESURRECTION OF
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE FL WHERE HIGHER PWAT LINGERS OVER
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER VORTICITY
MAXIMUM DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LONG WAVE MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT, COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES INCLUDING RIVER/SEA BREEZES
COULD INITIATE STORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO PULSE
SEVERE. THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY COULD ALSO BE INHIBITED IN THE WAKE OF MORNING
CONVECTION. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS, HOWEVER, IF A WEAK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CAN
DEVELOP NEAR THE FL ATLANTIC COAST, A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION CLEARS OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COAST THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER NNW WINDS USHERING IN BELOW
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR INLAND SE GA AND THE I-10
CORRIDOR TO 60S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND NORTH- CENTRAL FL AND
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
EARLY PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL
FL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY, THEN BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR, PWATS ~0.5", FILTERS INTO SE GA AND SOUTH TOWARDS THE
I-10 CORRIDOR IN NE FL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WITH A BIT MORE
MOISTURE OVER, PWATS VALUES ~1.2", NORTH CENTRAL FL, LOW END
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF MARION,
PUTNAM, AND FLAGLER. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S OVER SE GA AND MID TO UPPER 80S OVER NE FL, WITH THE
WARM SPOTS BEING OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL. BY THE EVENING HOURS ON
MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT IN LEADING TO
CLEARING SKIES. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER SE GA, UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S FOR NE FL, MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
BY TUESDAY, THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT , WITH LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTH CENTRAL FL
COUNTIES, WITH CHANCES BELOW 20%. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE OVERHEAD,
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO TICK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. BY THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY,
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS NORTH, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS, UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS SE GA THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AFTER THE FRONT'S PASSAGE
BRINGING MOISTURE IN FROM THE GULF. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WITH CHANCES AROUND 25% TO 40% ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE LINGERING WARM FRONT OVER SE GA
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE CONUS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
INCREASE SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE BACK HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK, AS THE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE FL PANHANDLE WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SE GA/NE FL BY NEXT WEEKEND.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DURING MIDWEEK WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS
NORMAL DURING THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER INCREASE
AND SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CLOUDS AROUND AT THIS TIME WITH LINGERING SHOWERS NOW SKIRTING
SOUTH OF SGJ. SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE TAFS MAINLY LCQ TO AMG WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z.
FORECASTING A REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION BY MIDDAY WITH
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHEAST
FL TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT FOR THE CONVECTION AT THE TAFS
GIVEN THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP THIS MORNING AND SOME DRIER AIR
MOVING IN DURING THE DAY, SO WE ONLY HAVE PROB30 TSRA GROUPS IN
PLACE. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVERALL ARE FOR SGJ AND GNV. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH AND DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING WITH VFR PREVAILING
TONIGHT, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND GNV AND VQQ
AFTER 08Z AND POSSIBLY INCLUDED IN THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS. THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND BEGINS TO STALL AND LINGER ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WITH GENERALLY OFFSHORE SSW FLOW
TODAY. LOW TO LOW END MODERATE RISK MONDAY WITH WINDS NNW BECOMING
ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE, BUT LOWER SURF
HEIGHTS GENERALLY FAVOR LOW RISK FOR ALL LOCAL BEACHES AT THIS
TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
NEEDED RAINFALL THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THEN A
RESURRECTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL COAST BY EARLY EVENING. ELEVATED TRANSPORT
WINDS AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CREATE
VERY HIGH DISPERSION TODAY. THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW AND DRIER AIR USHERING SOUTHWARD INTO
MONDAY. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR CRITICAL
HUMIDITY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FLORIDA INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM REMAINS FOR THE OCALA NF MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 81 54 83 56 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 82 63 82 65 / 40 10 10 0
JAX 87 60 88 62 / 40 10 10 0
SGJ 86 63 85 65 / 60 20 20 10
GNV 86 59 88 59 / 50 0 20 0
OCF 85 62 88 60 / 70 10 30 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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