752
FXUS62 KJAX 041815
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
215 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE NORTHEAST FL THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING...
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR A LINE FROM JESUP GA TO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AREA AROUND LIVE OAK THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ONGOING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT AT 2 PM, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASING COVERAGE WHILE MOVING EAST AROUND 15-20
MPH. IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS, BEST FORCING LIKELY WILL COME FROM
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE / LOW LEVEL TROUGHING GENERALLY ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH. WHATEVER
CONVECTION DEVELOPS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, THEN MOVING EAST OF THE WATERS AFTER ABOUT 1
AM. BY SUNRISE MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO A
LINE FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST TO JAX METRO TO GNV AND TO
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF CROSS CITY. SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MAY BE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
BECOMING COOLER WITH LOWS ABLE TO BOTTOM OUT 55-60 FROM INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA TO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
COLD FRONT WILL LAY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NE FL MONDAY, AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION OVER NE FL DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING
PROVIDING INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK NORTH INTO NE FL MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT, THEN TO NEAR THE GA/FL TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER
SE GA TUESDAY NIGHT. A DRY OVERNIGHT IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT. A
FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER NE FL TUESDAY
DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING.
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAIVER NORTH AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, LEADING TO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL, THIS WILL BE A WET AND STORMY
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
THEN NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED FROM LAKE CITY TO JUST WEST
OF CECIL FIELD AT 2 PM MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 15-20 KT. EXPECT
A CHANCE OF TSRA IMPACTS TO JAX METRO TAFS (JAX, CRG, AND VQQ) AS
WELL AS GNV OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS. SLIGHTLY LATER IMPACTS POSSIBLE
FOR SGJ, STARING ABOUT 19Z. A STORM OR TWO MAY NEAR SSI IN A FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY
ABOUT 00Z-01Z WITH A LINGERING SHOWER POSSIBLE STILL AROUND 01Z-02Z.
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THOUGH SOME CHANCE OF MVFR
VSBY AT VQQ BY 08Z-12Z. A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG AND SCATTERED
STRATUS DECK AROUND GNV EARLY MONDAY 08Z-12Z, THEN VFR. FOR SFC
WINDS, WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST ABOUT 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT UNTIL 00Z. LIGHT WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
AFTER 00Z INTO MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA WATERS THROUGH
LATE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT BUT STALL OVER THE REGION
INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT MAY DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING BACK TO THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS PARTS OF GA. THE APPROACH OF THE LOW AND AN
INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
RIP CURRENT: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES TODAY WITH RISK A BIT LOWER GOING INTO SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES. A LOW TO MODERATE RISK EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 55 83 56 86 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 63 82 65 83 / 10 10 0 10
JAX 60 88 62 89 / 10 10 0 10
SGJ 63 85 65 86 / 10 20 10 20
GNV 59 88 59 91 / 0 20 0 20
OCF 62 88 60 92 / 10 30 0 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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