080
FXUS62 KJAX 050605
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 952 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE (1007
MILLIBARS) POSITIONED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD THAT WAS APPROACHING THE I-95
CORRIDOR IN OUR AREA. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE (1015
MILLIBARS) WAS BUILDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWARD TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.
ALOFT...AN "OMEGA" BLOCK CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES, WITH CUTOFF TROUGHS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WHILE RIDGING WAS LOCATED IN BETWEEN THESE
TROUGHS OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT DENOTES THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS EVENING, AS DEWPOINTS WERE FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY,
WHILE 60S PREVAIL ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA AND THE REST OF
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING THROUGH
THE 60S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, WHILE 70S PREVAILED ELSEWHERE
AS OF 02Z. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS BEEN CONFINED TO OUR LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS SINCE AROUND SUNSET, WITH ACTIVITY PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD AND FURTHER OFFSHORE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
SUPPORT ALOFT FOR THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
WANE OVERNIGHT AS CUTOFF TROUGHING REMAINS STUCK WELL TO THE NORTH
OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE FRONT DECELERATING AS IT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT, AND THIS BOUNDARY
MAY STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL EASTWARD TO AROUND
ST. AUGUSTINE TOWARDS SUNRISE ON MONDAY. PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY, AND LOWS WILL ONLY FALL
TO THE 60-65 RANGE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL. WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
RESULT IN LOWS FALLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
COLD FRONT WILL LAY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NE FL MONDAY, AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION OVER NE FL DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING
PROVIDING INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK NORTH INTO NE FL MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT, THEN TO NEAR THE GA/FL TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER
SE GA TUESDAY NIGHT. A DRY OVERNIGHT IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT. A
FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER NE FL TUESDAY
DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING.
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAIVER NORTH AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, LEADING TO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL, THIS WILL BE A WET AND STORMY
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
THEN NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH TEMPO TEMPO MVFR THROUGH 12Z AT NE FL TERMINALS INCLUDING
CRG, VQQ AND GNV WHERE BRIEF PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS TODAY UNDER PASSING FEW-SCT LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE
AFTER SUNRISE INTO THE 8-12 KT RANGE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH WINDS AT
SSI, CRG AND SGJ BACKING SSE TO SE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TONIGHT, HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH LOW CLOUDS NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR FOG AFTER 06Z AT GNV AND VQQ.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 952 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS EVENING,
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS ON MONDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES LATE THIS WEEK, POSSIBLY
CREATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL PREVAIL BOTH NEAR SHORE AND
OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RIP CURRENTS: DEVELOPING ONSHORE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
MAY COMBINE WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL TO CREATE A LOWER END
MODERATE RISK EARLY THIS WEEK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES. A LOW
RISK IS ANTICIPATED AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES DUE TO LOW SURF
HEIGHTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 952 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON, AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO NEAR
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND DISPERSION VALUES INCREASE TO HIGH OR VERY
HIGH LEVELS DUE TO BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS.
SURFACE SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE,
PRECLUDING RED FLAG CONDITIONS. WEAKENING TRANSPORT SPEEDS ON
TUESDAY WILL YIELD FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AS
ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS CONTINUE INLAND. WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS
SHOULD BECOME BREEZY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY CREATING HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES, WHILE MUCH LIGHTER SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA POSSIBLY
RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 84 54 85 61 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 83 63 84 69 / 0 0 10 10
JAX 87 58 89 67 / 10 10 10 10
SGJ 85 65 84 69 / 20 10 20 10
GNV 88 58 91 66 / 10 0 20 0
OCF 88 59 92 67 / 10 0 20 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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