009
FXUS62 KJAX 050706
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
306 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
...DRIER AND WARMER TODAY WITH ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL PORTIONS OF NE FL THIS AFTERNOON...
..STORMY AND WET PATTERN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO WEEKEND
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
DRIER AND WARMER TODAY DESPITE A STALLING 'COOL' FRONT ACROSS
NORTH- CENTRAL FLORIDA. EARLY THIS MORNING, SHALLOW GROUND FOG
POOLING NEAR THE FRONT AND WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED
MAY CAUSE BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS SE GA TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS NE FL. INCREASING MID CLOUDS FROM THE SW ACROSS
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO LIMIT FOG EXTENT ACROSS NE
FL.
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR, WHILE RAIN & THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTH- CENTRAL FL INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WITH A
LOW 20-40% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS & ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS
MARION-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-ST. JOHNS COUNTIES WHERE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL PWAT OF 1.2-1.3" PHASES OVER DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE PERSISTENT
MID WEST UPPER LEVEL LOW.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS COMBINED
WITH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO (-12 TO -14 DEGC AT
500) WHERE SEA, RIVER AND LAKE BREEZES CONVERGE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS OUR SE ZONES...INGREDIENTS THAT STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS, WITH A NON-ZERO TORNADO RISK NEAR BOUNDARY MERGERS. RESULTANT
STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING,
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT WHILE
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND PATCHY FOG FORM OVER LAND AREAS.
AFTER NEAR NORMAL LOWS THIS MORNING, HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE 80S, HOTTEST TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER BASIN. TONIGHT, DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL AGAIN ENABLE
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S WELL INLAND TO 60S TOWARD THE
ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN & ATLANTIC COAST.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AWAY ON TUESDAY AS THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FL BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT WILL MEANDER NORTHWARD AND
SOUTHWARD OVER SE GA ON WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY, THE FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS SE GA. CLEAR
SKIES WILL BRING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S OVER SE GA AND ALONG
COASTAL LOCATIONS, WHILE MOST OF NE FL HOVER AROUND THE LOWER 90S.
BY THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE FL/GA
STATE-LINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS, UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS SE GA THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, WESTERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, THIS WILL BRING ABOUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY AND SOME ISOLATED STORMS WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
SEA BREEZES MOVING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASE CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY, AS
HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S, WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL FL COUNTIES ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN. OVERNIGHT, TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S WITH LOWERS 70S
ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
TRENDS ARE CONTINUING TO POINT TO A WET, STORMY PATTERN DURING
THE BACK HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALL COME ABOUT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG
THE GULF COAST, SHIFTING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY AND
MOVING OFF TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC BY THE START OF WEEKEND. SW FLOW
WILL FUNNEL IN GULF MOISTURE WHICH WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME THUNDERSTORM FORMATION DURING EACH OF THE
AFTERNOONS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DURING MIDWEEK WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS
NORMAL DURING THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER INCREASE
AND SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH TEMPO TEMPO MVFR THROUGH 12Z AT NE FL TERMINALS INCLUDING
CRG, VQQ AND GNV WHERE BRIEF PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS TODAY UNDER PASSING FEW-SCT LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE
AFTER SUNRISE INTO THE 8-12 KT RANGE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH WINDS AT
SSI, CRG AND SGJ BACKING SSE TO SE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TONIGHT, HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH LOW CLOUDS NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR FOG AFTER 06Z AT GNV AND VQQ.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS TODAY WITH
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ST.
AUGUSTINE THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED, STORMIER WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE FORM ALONG FRONTS MEANDERING ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: A MARGINAL MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY FOR NE FL
BEACHES WHERE BREEZIER SE WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. A LOW RISK TODAY FOR SE GA BEACHES AND ALL
LOCAL BEACHES EXPECTED TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TODAY AND
TUESDAY, MIN RHS NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS AS VALUES FALL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 20S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. BY MIDWEEK, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA,
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN MIN RH VALUES. ELEVATED TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL BRING ABOUT HIGH DISPERSIONS FOR BOTH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 82 56 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 83 66 83 70 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 88 61 88 67 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 88 64 85 69 / 20 10 0 10
GNV 87 59 91 66 / 10 0 0 0
OCF 88 61 92 67 / 20 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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