112
FXUS62 KJAX 051804
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
204 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OUT OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS BRINGING MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS NORTH
OF I-10 WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH GETTING SOME CHANCES (20-40%) OF
RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS, PUSHING OUT OVER
THE WATER AFTER SUNSET. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT, RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS SHIFT
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S, WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AWAY ON TUESDAY AS THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FL BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT WILL MEANDER NORTHWARD AND
SOUTHWARD OVER SE GA ON WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY, THE FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS SE GA. CLEAR
SKIES WILL BRING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S OVER SE GA AND ALONG
COASTAL LOCATIONS, WHILE MOST OF NE FL HOVER AROUND THE LOWER 90S.
BY THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE FL/GA
STATE-LINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS, UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS SE GA THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, WESTERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, THIS WILL BRING ABOUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY AND SOME ISOLATED STORMS WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
SEA BREEZES MOVING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASE CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY, AS
HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S, WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL FL COUNTIES ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN. OVERNIGHT, TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S WITH LOWERS 70S
ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
TRENDS ARE CONTINUING TO POINT TO A WET, STORMY PATTERN DURING
THE BACK HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALL COME ABOUT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG
THE GULF COAST, SHIFTING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY AND
MOVING OFF TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC BY THE START OF WEEKEND. SW FLOW
WILL FUNNEL IN GULF MOISTURE WHICH WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME THUNDERSTORM FORMATION DURING EACH OF THE
AFTERNOONS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DURING MIDWEEK WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS
NORMAL DURING THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER INCREASE
AND SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW TO
SCT CLOUD DECK AT 5-6K FT CONTINUES AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA, WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 8-10G15KT. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AT THE COASTAL SITES TO BECOME MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 20Z-00Z. TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT THE TAF SITES WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AND LOW
CLOUDS NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS. POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z
AT CRG AND VQQ. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
AT THE COASTAL SITES AROUND 16Z BUT LOOK TO STAY BELOW 10KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
WATERS BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS OUT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED, STORMIER WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE FORM ALONG FRONTS MEANDERING ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: A MARGINAL MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY FOR NE FL
BEACHES WHERE BREEZIER SE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. A LOW RISK TODAY FOR SE GA BEACHES AND ALL LOCAL
BEACHES EXPECTED TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TODAY AND
TUESDAY, MIN RHS NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS AS VALUES FALL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 20S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. BY MIDWEEK, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA,
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN MIN RH VALUES. ELEVATED TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL BRING ABOUT HIGH DISPERSIONS FOR BOTH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 57 84 61 82 / 0 10 0 50
SSI 66 83 69 82 / 0 10 10 60
JAX 62 89 66 87 / 0 10 0 70
SGJ 65 86 69 87 / 10 20 10 70
GNV 61 91 66 90 / 0 30 0 70
OCF 62 91 67 91 / 0 30 0 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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