033
FXUS62 KJAX 052341
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
741 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OUT OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS BRINGING MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS NORTH
OF I-10 WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH GETTING SOME CHANCES (20-40%) OF
RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS, PUSHING OUT OVER
THE WATER AFTER SUNSET. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT, RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS SHIFT
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S, WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH INTO NE FL AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY, RESULTING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL FL. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH TO
NEAR THE GA/FL LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ON WEDNESDAY, HELPING TO FOCUS CONVECTION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
INTO SE GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PROVIDING CONVERGENCE THERE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL WAIVER NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
PERIOD. WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
PERIOD, RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD. THIS EVENING, SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS MAINLY OVER SGJ THIS EVENING AND FEW TO SCATTERED OVER
REST OF THE NORTHEAST FL TAFS. SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE FOR VQQ
LATE TONIGHT AROUND 07Z-10Z. THEN ON TUESDAY, INCREASED MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS BUT VFR CIGS. SOME CUMULUS POSSIBLE AROUND SGJ BUT
MOST OF THE OTHER SITES WILL HAVE DRY LOW LEVELS SO NOT CUMULUS
INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY BUT SGJ
AND SSI WILL BE HAVE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WINDS THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT. EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR COASTAL SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
WATERS BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS OUT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED, STORMIER WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE FORM ALONG FRONTS MEANDERING ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: A MARGINAL MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY FOR NE FL
BEACHES WHERE BREEZIER SE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. A LOW RISK TODAY FOR SE GA BEACHES AND ALL LOCAL
BEACHES EXPECTED TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 57 84 61 82 / 0 10 0 50
SSI 66 83 69 82 / 0 10 10 60
JAX 62 89 66 87 / 0 10 0 70
SGJ 65 86 69 87 / 10 20 10 70
GNV 61 91 66 90 / 0 30 0 70
OCF 62 91 67 91 / 0 30 0 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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