830
FXUS62 KJAX 060547
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
147 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 933 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS
FOR NEAR FLAGLER COUNTY AND FOR THE MARINE WATERS. MODELS SEEM TO
BE A BIT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THERE REST
OF TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS SUGGESTED BY HRRR EARLY MORNING NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF JAX METRO BUT APPEARS TO BE TOO PROBABILITY TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 NORTHWEST ZONES AND INCLUDING SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA,
AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
FOR TUESDAY, SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPS AND POPS. BEST CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE, MAINLY NEAR
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, OUTFLOWS AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
CURRENT MARINE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OUT OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS BRINGING MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS NORTH
OF I-10 WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH GETTING SOME CHANCES (20-40%) OF
RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS, PUSHING OUT OVER
THE WATER AFTER SUNSET. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT, RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS SHIFT
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S, WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH INTO NE FL AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY, RESULTING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL FL. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH TO
NEAR THE GA/FL LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ON WEDNESDAY, HELPING TO FOCUS CONVECTION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
INTO SE GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PROVIDING CONVERGENCE THERE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL WAIVER NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
PERIOD. WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
PERIOD, RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE
FOR VQQ LATE TONIGHT AROUND 07Z-10Z. INCREASED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
AFTER 14Z WITH SOME CUMULUS POSSIBLE AROUND SGJ. LIGHT WINDS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TAF PERIOD, COASTAL SITES WILL SEE HAVE
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVE THROUGH AROUND AROUND 18Z/19Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
WATERS BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS OUT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED, STORMIER WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE FORM ALONG FRONTS MEANDERING ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: A MARGINAL MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY FOR NE FL
BEACHES WHERE BREEZIER SE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. A LOW RISK TODAY FOR SE GA BEACHES AND ALL LOCAL
BEACHES EXPECTED TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 86 61 82 63 / 10 0 50 30
SSI 83 69 82 69 / 10 10 60 40
JAX 90 66 87 67 / 10 10 70 20
SGJ 86 69 87 68 / 20 10 70 30
GNV 91 66 90 66 / 20 10 70 10
OCF 91 67 91 67 / 30 10 60 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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