742
FXUS62 KJAX 061326
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
926 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 923 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE FL SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES PUSH INLAND.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG NORTH CENTRAL FL
COUNTIES AND COASTAL LOCATIONS, WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE AS
PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR NORTH
CENTRAL FL, WITH THE OTHER LOCATIONS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO NE FL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY AS CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER
SE GA, UPPER 60S OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL, AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S
ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THE RETURN OF A WETTER PATTERN BEGINS WED AND CONTINUES INTO THU AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS NE FL EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN THE FRONTAL
ZONES SHIFTS SOUTHWARD BACK TOWARD NE FL INTO THU UNDER ACTIVE SW
STEERING FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING INTO THE
1.6 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE (NORMAL IS 1.1-1.2").
WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SE GA
IN THE MORNING NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, DIURNAL INSTABILITY INCREASES
ACROSS NE FL WITH A DOMINANT WEST COAST SEA BREEZE REGIME. SEA
BREEZE AND BOUNDARY MERGERS WILL FOCUS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 301
CORRIDOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE BOUNDARY CONVERGE, WITH
CONVECTION PRESSING OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COAST INTO
EVENING. A FEW LINGER SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLE THU NIGHT WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA AND LINGERING OUTFLOWS.
THURSDAY, THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA CONTINUING HIGH RAIN CHANCES, WITH MORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NE FL WHERE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY CAPABLE OF
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL, RELATIVELY WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL TEND
TO LIMIT SEVERE STORM RISK AND RATHER PROMOTE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARY MERGERS AND WHERE STORMS TRAIN
NEAR THE MEANDERING FRONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO ACROSS SE
GA INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF NE FL SOUTH OF THE MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE. MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A MUCH STORMIER & WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FRIDAY
WITH A POTENT CUT-OFF LOW FORMING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERNS EJECTS WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DOWNSTREAM
ENHANCING RAINFALL ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY, EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF, WITH
THE WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA UNDER
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DOWNSTREAM OF THE STILL DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND, THERE IS INCREASING RISK OF A FEW WAVES OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S DUE TO STORMINESS WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE
60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
LIGHT WINDS DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AS VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WINDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER
COASTAL SITES AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH AROUND 18Z/19Z,
SHIFTING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OVER THE LOCAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AN UNSETTLED, STORMIER
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE FORM ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MARGINAL MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR AREA
BEACHES INTO MIDWEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A LITTLE WARMER WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MINIMUM HUMIDITY TODAY WITH A
RETURN OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NE FL
WHILE SE GA REMAINS DRY. BOTH EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP TODAY. A MUCH WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS A FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS THE
REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 85 62 81 63 / 10 0 50 30
SSI 83 70 82 68 / 10 10 70 40
JAX 89 67 88 66 / 20 10 70 20
SGJ 86 69 87 68 / 30 30 70 30
GNV 90 66 90 66 / 30 10 60 10
OCF 91 68 90 68 / 40 10 50 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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