832
FXUS62 KJAX 061631
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1231 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...FIRST IMPULSE OF MOISTURE/ENERGY ALOFT IS
TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SE GA, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NE FL, MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNSET AS THIS FEATURE INTERACTS WITH
SEA BREEZE AS THEY PUSH INLAND. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER, BUT
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MARION/PUTNAM/FLAGLER COUNTIES.
REST OF TONIGHT...LOCAL NE FL/SE GA AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN
FEATURES BEFORE THE NEXT IMPULSE OF ENERGY/MOISTURE ARRIVES ON
WEDNESDAY, SO AFTER A FEW EVENING SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT,
EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70F ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT TO
NEAR CALM WINDS WILL SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVER INLAND
AREAS TOWARDS SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THE RETURN OF A WETTER PATTERN BEGINS WED AND CONTINUES INTO THU AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS NE FL EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN THE FRONTAL
ZONES SHIFTS SOUTHWARD BACK TOWARD NE FL INTO THU UNDER ACTIVE SW
STEERING FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING INTO THE
1.6 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE (NORMAL IS 1.1-1.2").
WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SE GA
IN THE MORNING NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, DIURNAL INSTABILITY INCREASES
ACROSS NE FL WITH A DOMINANT WEST COAST SEA BREEZE REGIME. SEA
BREEZE AND BOUNDARY MERGERS WILL FOCUS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 301
CORRIDOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE BOUNDARY CONVERGE, WITH
CONVECTION PRESSING OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COAST INTO
EVENING. A FEW LINGER SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLE THU NIGHT WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA AND LINGERING OUTFLOWS.
THURSDAY, THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA CONTINUING HIGH RAIN CHANCES, WITH MORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NE FL WHERE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY CAPABLE OF
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL, RELATIVELY WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL TEND
TO LIMIT SEVERE STORM RISK AND RATHER PROMOTE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARY MERGERS AND WHERE STORMS TRAIN
NEAR THE MEANDERING FRONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO ACROSS SE
GA INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF NE FL SOUTH OF THE MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE. MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A MUCH STORMIER & WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FRIDAY
WITH A POTENT CUT-OFF LOW FORMING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERNS EJECTS WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DOWNSTREAM
ENHANCING RAINFALL ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY, EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF, WITH
THE WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA UNDER
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DOWNSTREAM OF THE STILL DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND, THERE IS INCREASING RISK OF A FEW WAVES OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S DUE TO STORMINESS WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE
60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WEAK IMPULSE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A SHOWER AT TIMES,
WHILE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL BE AT
THE GNV/SGJ TAF SITES FROM 20-24Z WHERE MORE DIURNAL HEATING HAS
TAKEN PLACE AND WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP AT THESE LOCATIONS.
MOST OF TONIGHT WILL FEATURE HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDS, BUT LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WINDS WILL AID IN
POTENTIAL PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME FOR
GNV/VQQ, BUT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN OTHER TAF SITES. THE NEXT
IMPULSE OF MOISTURE/ENERGY ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO THE LOCAL TAF
SITES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LIKELY TOO SOON TO INCLUDE IN
THIS TAF ISSUANCE, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE SHRA AT SSI IN THE 15-18Z
TIME FRAME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH VARIABLE WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE ATLANTIC COAST EACH DAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MODELS STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR A POTENTIAL GULF
LOW DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS SOMETIME
LATER THIS WEEKEND WITH LIKELY HEADLINES FOR POTENTIAL SCA FLAGS
ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN AND DAILY SEA
BREEZE PATTERN AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 81 63 84 / 0 50 30 70
SSI 70 82 68 82 / 10 70 40 60
JAX 67 88 66 86 / 10 70 20 70
SGJ 69 87 68 84 / 30 70 30 70
GNV 66 90 66 89 / 10 60 10 80
OCF 68 90 68 89 / 10 50 20 70
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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