023
FXUS62 KJAX 061837
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
237 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...FIRST IMPULSE OF MOISTURE/ENERGY ALOFT IS
TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SE GA, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NE FL, MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNSET AS THIS FEATURE INTERACTS WITH
SEA BREEZE AS THEY PUSH INLAND. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER, BUT
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MARION/PUTNAM/FLAGLER COUNTIES.
REST OF TONIGHT...LOCAL NE FL/SE GA AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN
FEATURES BEFORE THE NEXT IMPULSE OF ENERGY/MOISTURE ARRIVES ON
WEDNESDAY, SO AFTER A FEW EVENING SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT,
EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70F ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT TO
NEAR CALM WINDS WILL SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVER INLAND
AREAS TOWARDS SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
DAILY RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AS A FRONT STALLS NEAR THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. STEERING FLOW
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF SEA BREEZE TO
DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY, INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS WILL
APPROACH 1.5-2.0" WHICH WILL ENHANCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT. A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY, HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER OVER SE GA
AS OPPOSED TO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY CAPABLE OF
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL, RELATIVELY WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL TEND
TO LIMIT SEVERE STORM RISK AND RATHER PROMOTE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARY MERGERS AND WHERE STORMS TRAIN
NEAR THE MEANDERING FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A STORMY WEEKEND IS IN STORE AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
GULF, EXTENDING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EACH DAY, WITH INCREASED COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AS SEA BREEZES MAKE
THEIR WAY INLAND. THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
MULTIPLE WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL, LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
POTENTIAL CONCERNS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SHOWING A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY FOR SE GA AND NE FL. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WEAK IMPULSE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A SHOWER AT TIMES,
WHILE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL BE AT
THE GNV/SGJ TAF SITES FROM 20-24Z WHERE MORE DIURNAL HEATING HAS
TAKEN PLACE AND WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP AT THESE LOCATIONS.
MOST OF TONIGHT WILL FEATURE HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDS, BUT LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WINDS WILL AID IN
POTENTIAL PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME FOR
GNV/VQQ, BUT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN OTHER TAF SITES. THE NEXT
IMPULSE OF MOISTURE/ENERGY ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO THE LOCAL TAF
SITES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LIKELY TOO SOON TO INCLUDE IN
THIS TAF ISSUANCE, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE SHRA AT SSI IN THE 15-18Z
TIME FRAME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH VARIABLE WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE ATLANTIC COAST EACH DAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MODELS STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR A POTENTIAL GULF
LOW DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS SOMETIME
LATER THIS WEEKEND WITH LIKELY HEADLINES FOR POTENTIAL SCA FLAGS
ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN AND DAILY SEA
BREEZE PATTERN AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 85 62 81 63 / 20 0 50 30
SSI 83 70 82 68 / 10 10 70 40
JAX 89 67 88 66 / 20 10 70 20
SGJ 86 69 87 68 / 30 30 70 30
GNV 90 66 90 66 / 30 10 60 10
OCF 91 68 90 68 / 40 10 50 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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