183
FXUS62 KJAX 071251
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
851 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
NO MAJOR UPDATES ON THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. WITH SW STEERING FLOW, THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL
DOMINATE, ALLOWING FOR THE FOCUS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS
BEING NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SEA BREEZES MERGE. TODAY
IS THE FIRST DAY OF SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
WET PATTERN CONTINUES THU AND FRI WITH THE SURFACE FRONT
MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD
UNDER SW STEERING FLOW AND PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT
ENHANCING LIFT OVER A DIURNALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE GENERAL
POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS SE GA
WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, WHILE CONVECTION ACROSS NE FL WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ENABLING MORE SURFACE HEATING EACH
DAY ALLOWING A DOMINANT WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND
PRESS INLAND. BOUNDARY MERGERS EACH AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST, WHERE ISOLATED STRONG TO PULSE SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE,
RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO LIMIT SEVERE STORM RISK AND RATHER
PROMOTE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARY MERGERS
AND WHERE STORMS TRAIN NEAR THE MEANDERING FRONT ACROSS SE GA.
FRIDAY, LOCAL SEVERE STORM RISK INCREASES AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
STRENGTHEN WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 30-35 KTS AND TEMPS ALOFT
COOLING AS A ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORM WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVER
THE AREA AND LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO ACROSS
SE GA NEAR 80 TO THE LOWER 80S DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF NE FL SOUTH OF THE MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A WET AND STORMY WEEKEND, WITH
WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS A CLOSED
MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND LINGERS
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WOULD CONTINUE MOIST SW FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WHILE EJECTING STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OF THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS ADDED MID LEVEL LIFT, STRONGER BULK SHEAR,
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
MEANDERING SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL ENABLE A
SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE, BRINGING US
NOT JUST WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL BUT ALSO AN INCREASED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. SEVERE STORM RISK WILL BE GREATEST EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT, SUN AND MOST LIKELY MON WHEN DEEP
MOISTURE, UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY MAXIMIZE. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL WELCOME
RAINFALL, TOO MUCH OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND/OR DAYS OF
TRAINING STORMS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS CURRENTLY SHOWING A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR SE
GA AND NE FL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) ON FRIDAY.
HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD VARIES BETWEEN
EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS, WHICH LOCALLY INFLUENCES HOW FAST DRIER
AIR INFILTRATES THE LOCAL AREA AND DECREASES RAIN CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CONTINUES ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
MONDAY THEN DRIER AIR BEGINS TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES TUE AS THE LOW
FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT NNE OF THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GULF BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHWARD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S DUE TO STORMINESS WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN
THE 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
THE PREDAWN PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, TEMPO
GROUPS FOR PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DWINDLE A BIT PAST 00Z, WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LIKELY FOR THE INLAND TAF SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UNSETTLED STORMIER WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE ACROSS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME, SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN AND DAILY SEA
BREEZE PATTERN AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE
WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
A WETTER, STORMIER PATTERN BEGINS TODAY AS A SURFACE FRONT STALLS
AND LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. MORNING SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT ARE
MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR OF NE FL TODAY AND THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
INCREASES EACH AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF STORMS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 301 TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON,
WITH A MORE DOMINANT WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THURSDAY. THE WET
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 82 65 85 66 / 60 20 80 60
SSI 81 70 83 71 / 70 30 70 60
JAX 87 67 88 68 / 70 20 80 50
SGJ 86 68 87 69 / 80 30 70 50
GNV 90 67 90 68 / 70 20 80 30
OCF 90 68 90 69 / 70 20 80 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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