324
FXUS62 KJAX 071716
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
116 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW MARINE
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
AROUND NOON, A STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVED THROUGH THE BRUNSWICK
AREA, PRODUCING A 40 MPH WIND GUST AT ST. SIMONS ISLAND. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LATE EVENING TODAY, MAINLY
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS
NOT HIGHLIGHTING THE ATLANTIC COAST FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR. HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS TODAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TONIGHT, IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
INLAND AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. WITH
CALM WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE INLAND
BEFORE SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
WET PATTERN CONTINUES THU AND FRI WITH THE SURFACE FRONT
MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD
UNDER SW STEERING FLOW AND PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT
ENHANCING LIFT OVER A DIURNALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE GENERAL
POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS SE GA
WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, WHILE CONVECTION ACROSS NE FL WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ENABLING MORE SURFACE HEATING EACH
DAY ALLOWING A DOMINANT WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND
PRESS INLAND. BOUNDARY MERGERS EACH AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST, WHERE ISOLATED STRONG TO PULSE SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE,
RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO LIMIT SEVERE STORM RISK AND RATHER
PROMOTE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARY MERGERS
AND WHERE STORMS TRAIN NEAR THE MEANDERING FRONT ACROSS SE GA.
FRIDAY, LOCAL SEVERE STORM RISK INCREASES AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
STRENGTHEN WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 30-35 KTS AND TEMPS ALOFT
COOLING AS A ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORM WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVER
THE AREA AND LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO ACROSS
SE GA NEAR 80 TO THE LOWER 80S DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF NE FL SOUTH OF THE MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A WET AND STORMY WEEKEND, WITH
WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS A CLOSED
MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND LINGERS
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WOULD CONTINUE MOIST SW FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WHILE EJECTING STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OF THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS ADDED MID LEVEL LIFT, STRONGER BULK SHEAR,
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
MEANDERING SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL ENABLE A
SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE, BRINGING US
NOT JUST WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL BUT ALSO AN INCREASED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. SEVERE STORM RISK WILL BE GREATEST EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT, SUN AND MOST LIKELY MON WHEN DEEP
MOISTURE, UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY MAXIMIZE. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL WELCOME
RAINFALL, TOO MUCH OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND/OR DAYS OF
TRAINING STORMS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS CURRENTLY SHOWING A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR SE
GA AND NE FL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) ON FRIDAY.
HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD VARIES BETWEEN
EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS, WHICH LOCALLY INFLUENCES HOW FAST DRIER
AIR INFILTRATES THE LOCAL AREA AND DECREASES RAIN CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CONTINUES ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
MONDAY THEN DRIER AIR BEGINS TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES TUE AS THE LOW
FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT NNE OF THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GULF BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHWARD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S DUE TO STORMINESS WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN
THE 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TEMPOS ARE IN PLACE FOR BEST
TIMING OF STORM IMPACTS. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DWINDLE A BIT
PAST 00Z, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LIKELY FOR THE
INLAND TAF SITES. FOR THE DUVAL SITES, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR TWO ROUNDS, THEREFORE HAVE TWO TEMPO GROUPS, ONE FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND ONE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE MOST ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS A STALLED FRONT LAYS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN AND DAILY SEA
BREEZE PATTERN AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE
WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
A WETTER, STORMIER PATTERN BEGINS TODAY AS A SURFACE FRONT STALLS
AND LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. MORNING SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT ARE
MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR OF NE FL TODAY AND THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
INCREASES EACH AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF STORMS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 301 TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON,
WITH A MORE DOMINANT WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THURSDAY. THE WET
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 65 85 65 82 / 30 90 60 80
SSI 70 84 69 82 / 30 80 70 80
JAX 68 90 67 87 / 30 80 50 80
SGJ 69 88 68 86 / 40 80 50 80
GNV 67 91 66 87 / 20 70 30 80
OCF 69 91 67 88 / 20 70 30 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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