801
FXUS62 KJAX 071741
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
141 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
AROUND NOON, A STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVED THROUGH THE BRUNSWICK
AREA, PRODUCING A 40 MPH WIND GUST AT ST. SIMONS ISLAND. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LATE EVENING TODAY, MAINLY
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS
NOT HIGHLIGHTING THE ATLANTIC COAST FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR. HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS TODAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TONIGHT, IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
INLAND AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. WITH
CALM WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE INLAND
BEFORE SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
WAVY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH PIECES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE PUSHING ALONG THIS FEATURE,
MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD THROUGH SE GA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS, WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AT TIMES, MAINLY ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES, BUT COULD BE
POSSIBLE ANY PORTION OF THE NE FL/SE GA AREA, DEPENDING ON ANY
OUTFLOW OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES. THIS CONVECTION WILL
ALSO CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN SOME URBAN TYPE AREAS, BUT OVERALL MOST OF THE
RAINFALL IS NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY SPELL OVER THE PAST
MONTH. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTH GULF ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS
SOUTH GA ON SUNDAY/MONDAY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS FOR TUESDAY AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST US BY WEDNESDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD
ACROSS SE GA CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHERE
4-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED, WHILE
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF NE FL, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, BUT MOST OF NE FL WILL REMAIN
IN THE WARM SECTOR, WHICH WILL ENHANCE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
EACH DAY WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER DIURNAL HEATING AND INTERACTION
WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES, WHICH WILL ALSO LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS WELL. OVERALL MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BENEFIT
FROM THE THIS WETTER RAINFALL PATTERN, BUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY FLOOD
WATCHES WILL NEED TO BE POSTED, ALSO WILL SEE SOME RISES ON THE
MAIN STEM RIVER BASINS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RIVER FLOODING
WILL BE ALONG BASINS ACROSS SE GA, WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS THAT A DRIER SLOT OF AIRMASS
ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT A TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAVE THE RISK OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE ABOVE NORMAL CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RAINFALL CHANCES, THEN
RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS MORE INSOLATION IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TEMPOS ARE IN PLACE FOR BEST
TIMING OF STORM IMPACTS. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DWINDLE A BIT
PAST 00Z, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LIKELY FOR THE
INLAND TAF SITES. FOR THE DUVAL SITES, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR TWO ROUNDS, THEREFORE HAVE TWO TEMPO GROUPS, ONE FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND ONE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE MOST ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS A STALLED FRONT LAYS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN AND DAILY SEA
BREEZE PATTERN AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE
WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 65 85 65 82 / 30 90 60 80
SSI 70 84 69 82 / 30 80 70 80
JAX 68 90 67 87 / 30 80 50 80
SGJ 69 88 68 86 / 40 80 50 80
GNV 67 91 66 87 / 20 70 30 80
OCF 69 91 67 88 / 20 70 30 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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