685
FXUS62 KJAX 240540
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
140 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ALLOWING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS ENABLED BOTH SEA BREEZES TO WORK INLAND THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
PWAT OF AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS AND LOW RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
PREVENTING ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY CLEAR TO BRIEFLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AIRMASS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH
OF ANY FOG. HAVE TOUCHED UP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S MOSTLY, AND
SO NOT AS COOL AS THIS MORNING. THIS RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL LOWS
FOR LATE MAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE ALONG WITH A LINGERING
DRY AIRMASS (PWATS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS) AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. SOME INLAND PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG FORMATION.
SATURDAY...WEAK STEERING FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH LEADS
TO SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NE
FL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND
ACROSS COASTAL NE FL AND THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN TO THE SOUTH OF
JAX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRIOR TO THIS DEVELOPMENT, STILL
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND AROUND 90F ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY, SHOULD ALLOW FOR PEAK HEAT INDICES TO PUSH
CLOSER TO 100F DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
PREVAILING FLOW WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING
IN FROM OUT OF THE EAST SHIFTING ITS WAY NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY.
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS PWAT VALUES OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA RISES TO 2 INCHES AND
HIGHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
THIS WEEKEND WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND THE LOWER 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH
VALUES OF OVER 100 DEGREES FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MIDWEEK AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSES DOWN FROM OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED TO THE NORTH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AREA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS PERIOD WILL ACT TO ENHANCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPS BEGINNING TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AFTER
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING AMID MILD SOUTHERLY WIND 4-9 KTS. AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY, POTENTIALLY FUELING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING GENERALLY SOUTH OF LINE FROM KGNV TO KSGJ. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWER INFLUENCE, AIRFIELDS WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 8-12 KNOTS. MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TONIGHT AND INCREASE LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A WEAK FLOW PATTERN AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY INCREASE DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
ADDITIONALLY, SUCCESSIVE WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE, EMERGING
FROM THE GULF, WILL INCREASE STORM CHANCES AND WIND SPEEDS AS THEY
PASS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: DAILY MODERATE RISK OF RIPS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN SETS UP WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL KEEP SURF/BREAKERS
IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
MINRH WILL DROP DOWN INTO 20S ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH VALUES REMAINING LOW ON SATURDAY AND IMPROVING ON SUNDAY. FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES
FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS BUILDING ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE AND OVER AREAS OF BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DISPERSION WILL BE GOOD ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY, WITH HIGH
VALUES OVER MOST OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 69 92 69 / 10 10 30 20
SSI 86 75 89 74 / 10 10 30 20
JAX 94 72 95 71 / 10 10 30 20
SGJ 91 72 92 71 / 10 10 30 20
GNV 97 68 95 69 / 20 10 40 10
OCF 97 68 95 70 / 20 10 40 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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