321
FXUS62 KJAX 241030
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
630 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
TODAY WILL SERVE AS A TRANSITION DAY TO A STORMIER/WETTER PATTERN.
SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERS MOISTURE NORTHWARD. A SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLUX
WILL OFFER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON, AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB TOWARD 70F SOUTH OF LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF SAID LINE. FOR CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS, THE DRY AIR ALOFT MAY ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG DOWNBURSTS/OUTFLOW. HIGHS WILL AGAIN PUSH INTO THE 90S THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 80S. THE INCREASE DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT SOME THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 90S
AT INLAND LOCATIONS OF NE FL TODAY.
AFTER SUNDOWN, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE QUICKLY.
MEANWHILE, A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED MCS
TRACKING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA (NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER) AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THAT MCS SHOULD DECAY RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DRIER
AIRMASS ACROSS SE GA, THUS POPS WERE KEPT SILENT (UNDER 10%) FOR
NOW. OUTSIDE OF THE THAT FEATURE, A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MUGGY NIGHT
IS ANTICIPATED. LOW STRATUS WILL BE FAVORED SUNDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SE GA.
WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S INLAND AND COASTAL READINGS IN THE MID 70S.
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR
SUNDAY, WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER NOW HIGHLIGHTING THE
AREA FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, ALONG WITH
SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AREA-WIDE, EXCLUDING THE
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST WHICH WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MID-
WEEK, BRINGING HIGHER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS
PERIOD WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 90S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING. DESTABILIZING
AIRMASS SOUTH OF LINE FROM KGNV TO KSGJ WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE EASTERLY SEA BREEZE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z.
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS SHALLOW, A SHOWER MAY SPAWN ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE VC OF KGNV. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS KEEPING THE
SURFACE LAYER MIXED AND FREE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WEAK FLOW PATTERN AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. MOIST SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND SLOWLY INCREASE DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ADDITIONALLY,
SUCCESSIVE WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FROM THE GULF AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THESE DISTURBANCES
WILL INCREASE STORM CHANCES AND WIND SPEEDS AS THEY PASS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
AND MAY PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS NEXT WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
\MINRH WILL REMAIN LOW OVER INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY, DROPPING INTO
THE 30-35% RANGE, WITH VALUES IMPROVING SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
ENHANCE MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH A STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THREAT
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISPERSION WILL BE GOOD TODAY,
BUT HIGH OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 92 69 92 69 / 0 10 40 20
SSI 84 76 86 74 / 0 10 30 30
JAX 92 72 94 71 / 10 0 30 20
SGJ 88 73 90 72 / 10 0 30 20
GNV 97 69 94 69 / 20 10 40 10
OCF 96 69 94 70 / 30 10 40 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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