386
FXUS62 KJAX 241728
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
128 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FORECAST PROCEEDS ON TRACK THIS MORNING NO MAJOR UPDATES. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTH
TODAY WITH WINDS TURNING FROM WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY
DURING LUNCH AND THEN EASTERLY BEHIND ATLANTIC SEABREEZE PASSAGE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I-95, THEN PAST US-17
TOWARDS US-301 BY MIDDLE AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASE IN PWATS WELL
SOUTH OF I-10 TO 1.50-1.75 INCHES WILL SUPPORT SOME SEABREEZE
T'STORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T'STORMS
FROM JUST SOUTH OF ST AUGUSTINE TO OCALA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS, BUT OTHERWISE MAIN HAZARDS
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AROUND 40 MPH AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST, THE LOW 90S ALONG I-95,
AND THE MID 90S WEST OF I-95 WITH ISOLATED UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY.
REMNANT ATLANTIC SEABREEZE WILL SHIFT WEST PAST I-75 EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE AND POSSIBLY
A LONE T'STORM ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY
AND DIMINISHING UNDER 5 MPH INLAND AND 5-10 MPH AT THE COAST. A
WEAKENING MCS WILL PUSH ACROSS SE AL INTO SW GA AFTER MIDNIGHT,
BUT FADE BEFORE REACHING OUR SE GA COUNTIES. SKIES WILL STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING THE PICTURE
LATE. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL FORM INLAND IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND AND THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
TODAY WILL SERVE AS A TRANSITION DAY TO A STORMIER/WETTER PATTERN.
SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERS MOISTURE NORTHWARD. A SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLUX
WILL OFFER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON, AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB TOWARD 70F SOUTH OF LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF SAID LINE. FOR CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS, THE DRY AIR ALOFT MAY ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG DOWNBURSTS/OUTFLOW. HIGHS WILL AGAIN PUSH INTO THE 90S THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 80S. THE INCREASE DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT SOME THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 90S
AT INLAND LOCATIONS OF NE FL TODAY.
AFTER SUNDOWN, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE QUICKLY.
MEANWHILE, A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED MCS
TRACKING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA (NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER) AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THAT MCS SHOULD DECAY RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DRIER
AIRMASS ACROSS SE GA, THUS POPS WERE KEPT SILENT (UNDER 10%) FOR
NOW. OUTSIDE OF THE THAT FEATURE, A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MUGGY NIGHT
IS ANTICIPATED. LOW STRATUS WILL BE FAVORED SUNDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SE GA.
WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S INLAND AND COASTAL READINGS IN THE MID 70S.
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR
SUNDAY, WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER NOW HIGHLIGHTING THE
AREA FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, ALONG WITH
SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AREA-WIDE, EXCLUDING THE
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST WHICH WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MID-
WEEK, BRINGING HIGHER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS
PERIOD WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 90S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES, BUT MAY
DEVELOP CLOSE ENOUGH TO GNV TO WARRANT VCTS AFTER 22Z THROUGH 00Z.
WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT THE COASTAL AND DUVAL TAF SITES TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS BEHIND SEABREEZE PASSAGE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-8
KNOTS AT GNV TURNING SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZE
PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BRING TEMPO
RESTRICTIONS FOR MVFR/IFR FOG AT VQQ AND GNV AFTER 08Z WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR CALM INLAND AND 5-8 KNOTS AT THE COAST.
SUNDAY, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CUMULUS CLOUD DECKS AROUND 3.0
TO 4.0 KFT WILL DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY TO END THE
PERIOD. MORE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE,
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WEAK FLOW PATTERN AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. MOIST SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND SLOWLY INCREASE DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ADDITIONALLY,
SUCCESSIVE WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FROM THE GULF AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THESE DISTURBANCES
WILL INCREASE STORM CHANCES AND WIND SPEEDS AS THEY PASS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
AND MAY PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS NEXT WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
\MINRH WILL REMAIN LOW OVER INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY, DROPPING INTO
THE 30-35% RANGE, WITH VALUES IMPROVING SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
ENHANCE MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH A STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THREAT
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISPERSION WILL BE GOOD TODAY,
BUT HIGH OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 68 92 69 90 / 0 40 20 50
SSI 74 86 74 89 / 0 30 30 40
JAX 70 94 71 94 / 0 30 20 40
SGJ 71 90 72 92 / 10 30 20 40
GNV 68 94 69 94 / 10 40 10 40
OCF 68 94 70 94 / 10 40 10 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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