866
FXUS62 KJAX 251742
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
142 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS MORNING. THE
PATCHY FOG QUICKLY BURNED OFF INLAND WITH EXCEPTION NEAR JESUP WHICH
HAD PERSISTENT PATCHY DENSE FOG UNTIL AN HOUR AFTER SUNRISE. MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RAISE OUR
MOISTURE LEVELS ABOVE AVERAGE AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG HEATING, INCREASED MOISTURE, AND INLAND
MOVING ATLANTIC SEABREEZE SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA WILL HELP CREATE SCATTERED T'STORMS. MID
LEVEL TEMPS NOT AS COOL TODAY CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY OF -9 C WILL
FEATURE LESS IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0-6.5 C/KM, SO
SURFACE CAPE LEVELS OF 1,000-2,000 J/KG WILL HELP STIR UP STORMS.
MOST LIKELY HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 60 MPH
GIVEN LACK OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MORE THAN 20 KNOTS ALONG WITH SMALL
HAIL IN THIS AFERNOON'S ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORMS (SPC
MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE T'STORMS AREA WIDE TODAY).
SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL SUPPORT VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND RAINFALL
RATES UP TO 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR. AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND URBAN LOCATIONS.
HIGHS WILL BE HOT TODAY IN THE MID 90S INLAND, LOW 90S ALONG I-95
AND ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN AND UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES
BEHIND THE SEABREEZE. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE 95-100 DEGREES.
PREVAILING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH WHILE
THE GULF SEABREEZE DRIFTS PAST HIGHWAY 301 WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-10 THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN POST SUNSET AND END BY
MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM STORM DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN
OUT LATE TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY, SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S INLAND
AND MID 70S AT THE COAST.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
IT'LL BE A NICE MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE 90S INLAND AGAIN TODAY, UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
BY EARLY AFTERNOON, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS THE FRONT SITS OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
AND PUSH INLAND. THERE IS A THREAT FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
THE HWY US 301 TO ATLANTIC COAST AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR SEA
BREEZE INTERACTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS OF 40-60 MPH, THE HAIL THREAT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO
UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, BUT SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
PWATS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY DUE TO THE DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW, SO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITHIN STORMS AS
WELL. CONVECTION WILL SIMMER DOWN AFTER SUNSET, WITH SOME STORMS
LINGERING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70S INLAND, AND
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
ELEVATED DEEP MOISTURE AND PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
YIELD INCREASING DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT LEADING INITIALLY
SEA BREEZE AND THEN OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORM MOVEMENT EACH
AFTERNOON. DUE TO LIGHT STEERING FLOW, SEA BREEZES WILL PUSH IN
FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC AND MERGE NEAR THE HWY 301 CORRIDOR
EACH DAY. SCATTERED, STRONG PULSE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG SEA BREEZE COLLISION, SOME MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SEVERE DOWNBURSTS IN ADDITIONAL TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. EACH DAY THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET AND DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BEFORE
DISSIPATING ENTIRELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
90S AND, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES PUSHING TO THE
100-105F RANGE. FOLLOWING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG
FORMATION.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
TO CLOSE OUT THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE BROAD PATTERN. A FEW MORE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL BE
DEFLECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN GA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHICH MAY
PROLONG AND ENHANCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG
THE SEA BREEZES. AGAIN, WITHOUT CONSIDERABLE CHANGE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT, THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS WILL BE DOWNBURST WIND AND A
LOCALIZED FLOOD RISK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US LATE THIS
WEEK. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY SPREAD ON TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND PREFRONTAL CONVECTION. DESPITE A DAY OR NOCTURNAL FROPA,
A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS MAY IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED
OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
HEAT INDEX READINGS UP INTO THE LOW 100S. SOME COOLING RELIEF IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS BEING LOWERED BACK
INTO THE 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTIALLY, BUT
AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE FROM THE
EAST AND A WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST, THE
COASTAL AND DUVAL SITES WILL SEE RESTRICTIONS FOR MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS BEHIND
THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE WITH PREVAILING VCTS AND TOWERING CUMULUS
WITH BASES 3.0 TO 4.0 KFT.
STORMS SHOULD DWINDLE IN COVERAGE AFTER 03Z WITH LINGERING DEBRIS
MID LEVEL CLOUDS UNTIL SUNRISE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
COAST AND VARIABLE INLAND. SOME TEMPO RESTRICTIONS FOR MVFR FOG AT
VQQ AFTER 08Z. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS RESUME MONDAY MORNING WITH
LOW LEVEL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BEFORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AFTER THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD MORE TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS RESULTING IN A WEAK FLOW PATTERN
AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY INCREASE DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ADDITIONALLY, SUCCESSIVE WEAK TROUGHS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL INCREASE STORM
CHANCES AND WIND SPEEDS AS THEY PASS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND MAY PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS NEXT WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY FOR THE NE FL
AND SE GA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZES AS THEY ADVANCE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
TRENDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE. DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED AND
LOCALLY HIGH INLAND DISPERSION THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 68 90 69 90 / 10 50 40 50
SSI 73 86 75 86 / 50 40 50 50
JAX 70 92 72 92 / 50 40 30 50
SGJ 71 89 72 90 / 70 40 30 50
GNV 68 93 70 94 / 20 40 10 60
OCF 69 92 70 94 / 10 40 10 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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