076
FXUS62 KJAX 251805
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING ALONG I-95 CORRIDOR AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
SHOWERS AND T'STORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AS THE
ATLANTIC MOVES ONSHORE. EXPECT MORE T'STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH PEAK
HOURS OF 4-8PM ALONG I-95 AND NORTHWARD INTO SE GA AREAS EAST OF
US-1. PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY IS NOTED IN RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING OVER
2,000 J/KG WITH UP TO 3,000 J/KG ALONG COASTAL NE FL. MAIN HAZARDS
STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH FROM DOWNBURSTS
ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR AND
LOCALIZED TOTALS OF OVER 3 INCHES COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS IN URBANIZED LOCATIONS. LACK OF 0-6KM SHEAR UNDER 20
KNOTS AND LOWER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY UNDER 6.0-6.5 C/KM
WILL LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL, BUT SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE.
THE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AFTER 8PM, WITH SOME WEAKER CELLS ONGOING UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT.
HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE
LOW 90S AT JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND MANY LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. MID 90S STILL EXPECTED FOR HIGHS WEST OF THE
ST JOHNS RIVER WHERE LESS STORMS WILL FOCUS WITH UPPER 80S AT THE
BEACHES BEHIND THE SEABREEZE. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE 95-100
DEGREES. PREVAILING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH WILL TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 20 MPH WHILE THE GULF SEABREEZE DRIFTS PAST HIGHWAY 301 WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, AFTER STORMS END AFTER MIDNIGHT, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL REMAIN FROM STORM DEBRIS CLOUDS BEFORE THINNING IN THE
PREDAWN MORNING HOURS. SOME PATCHY, SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE WHERE
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID 70S AT THE COAST.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES,
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SE GA AND NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
301 OF NE FL. LIGHT WSW 1000-700 MB STEERING FLOW NEAR 10 KTS
MONDAY COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
WILL ENABLE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM ALONG BOTH INLAND
PROGRESSING SEA BREEZES ACROSS NE FL BY MIDDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH GA. AN MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WITH LITTLE SHEAR ALOFT, SO THE MAIN STORM HAZARDS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WET DOWNBURSTS WHERE BOUNDARY MERGERS
OCCUR, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR.
BY TUESDAY, A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH SEA
BREEZES STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE
AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS SE GA NEAR
THE FRONT AND ACROSS NE FL AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
DEVELOPING SW FLOW INCREASES MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY
ALOFT.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES
95-100 DEGREES BEFORE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COOL OFF THE AIRMASS.
MUGGY AND MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO
THE MID 70S COAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
WED & THU...DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE WITH A TRANSITION TO A MORE DYNAMIC SW FLOW PATTERN
MID-WEEK WITH A MORE DOMINANT WEST COAST SEA BREEZE REGIME UNDER
CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE. SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SE GA
NEAR THE MEANDERING FRONT DAILY AND BREAK OUT ALONG THE INLAND
PROGRESSING SEA BREEZES ACROSS NE FL. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS AND PULSE SEVERE STORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THE SW INCREASE LIFT AND MID LEVEL
TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL BACK TO NEAR TO JUST BELOW CLIMO OF -10 DEGC
AT 500 MB. THE BEST COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS
FOCUS ACROSS SE GA AND COASTAL NE FL EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FRI & SAT...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH
OF A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT AND LIKELY
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE SOUTHWARD TOWARD SE GA FRI OR FRI NIGHT,
THEN PRESSING SOUTH OF NE FL FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT. TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS AT THIS
TIME.
LATE SAT IN SUN...DRIER AND COOLER TRAILING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY, BUT
AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE FROM THE
EAST AND A WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST, THE
COASTAL AND DUVAL SITES WILL SEE RESTRICTIONS FOR MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS BEHIND
THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE WITH PREVAILING VCTS AND TOWERING CUMULUS
WITH BASES 3.0 TO 4.0 KFT.
STORMS SHOULD DWINDLE IN COVERAGE AFTER 03Z WITH LINGERING DEBRIS
MID LEVEL CLOUDS UNTIL SUNRISE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
COAST AND VARIABLE INLAND. SOME TEMPO RESTRICTIONS FOR MVFR FOG AT
VQQ AFTER 08Z. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS RESUME MONDAY MORNING WITH
LOW LEVEL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BEFORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AFTER THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD MORE TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS RESULTING IN A WEAK FLOW PATTERN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NEAR THE COAST WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EXPECTED. SCATTERED SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOPMENT EACH
AFTERNOON MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR SHORE WINDS AS THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS
DAILY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND MAY PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS NEXT WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ALL AREA
BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED AT NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES
FOR MEMORIAL DAY WITH A LOW RISK AT SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 68 90 69 90 / 10 50 40 50
SSI 73 86 75 86 / 50 40 50 50
JAX 70 92 72 92 / 50 40 30 50
SGJ 71 89 72 90 / 70 40 30 50
GNV 68 93 70 94 / 20 40 10 60
OCF 69 92 70 94 / 10 40 10 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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