501
FXUS62 KJAX 260509
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
109 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
UPDATED TEMPERATURES, WINDS AND SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT WEATHER AS
THIS LINE OF STORMS EXIT THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND A STORM OR
TWO COULD LINGER FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BUT WILL DROP OFF
DRASTICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S OVER INLAND AREAS WITH AREAS NEAR
THE COAST SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES,
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SE GA AND NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
301 OF NE FL. LIGHT WSW 1000-700 MB STEERING FLOW NEAR 10 KTS
MONDAY COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
WILL ENABLE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM ALONG BOTH INLAND
PROGRESSING SEA BREEZES ACROSS NE FL BY MIDDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH GA. AN MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WITH LITTLE SHEAR ALOFT, SO THE MAIN STORM HAZARDS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WET DOWNBURSTS WHERE BOUNDARY MERGERS
OCCUR, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR.
BY TUESDAY, A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH SEA
BREEZES STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE
AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS SE GA NEAR
THE FRONT AND ACROSS NE FL AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
DEVELOPING SW FLOW INCREASES MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY
ALOFT.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES
95-100 DEGREES BEFORE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COOL OFF THE AIRMASS.
MUGGY AND MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO
THE MID 70S COAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
WED & THU...DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE WITH A TRANSITION TO A MORE DYNAMIC SW FLOW PATTERN
MID-WEEK WITH A MORE DOMINANT WEST COAST SEA BREEZE REGIME UNDER
CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE. SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SE GA
NEAR THE MEANDERING FRONT DAILY AND BREAK OUT ALONG THE INLAND
PROGRESSING SEA BREEZES ACROSS NE FL. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS AND PULSE SEVERE STORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THE SW INCREASE LIFT AND MID LEVEL
TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL BACK TO NEAR TO JUST BELOW CLIMO OF -10 DEGC
AT 500 MB. THE BEST COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS
FOCUS ACROSS SE GA AND COASTAL NE FL EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FRI & SAT...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH
OF A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT AND LIKELY
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE SOUTHWARD TOWARD SE GA FRI OR FRI NIGHT,
THEN PRESSING SOUTH OF NE FL FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT. TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS AT THIS
TIME.
LATE SAT IN SUN...DRIER AND COOLER TRAILING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF VQQ EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF IMPACTS BEING AT SSI AND
THE DUVAL SITES AFTER 20Z, PROB30S ARE IN PLACE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD MORE TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS RESULTING IN A WEAK FLOW PATTERN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NEAR THE COAST WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EXPECTED. SCATTERED SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOPMENT EACH
AFTERNOON MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR SHORE WINDS AS THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS
DAILY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND MAY PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS NEXT WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ALL AREA
BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED AT NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES
FOR MEMORIAL DAY WITH A LOW RISK AT SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 69 90 70 / 50 40 50 30
SSI 86 75 86 74 / 40 50 50 40
JAX 92 72 92 71 / 40 30 50 30
SGJ 89 72 90 72 / 40 30 50 30
GNV 93 70 94 70 / 40 10 60 20
OCF 92 70 94 71 / 40 10 60 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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