145
FXUS62 KJAX 261313
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
913 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 853 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONVECTION BUILDING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FORMING OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS FORECAST, WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES, WITH HIGH PWATS AND SLOW
STEERING FLOW PROMOTING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED
FLOODING POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED A GOOD
AMOUNT OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES TO INTERACT CLOSER TO I-95, WITH
STORMS THEN DRIFTING EASTWARD. THE STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, WITH THE GEORGIA COAST HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND,
SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST. AFTER STORMS CLEAR
TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INLAND PATCHY FOG AS
WINDS CALM.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH SOME WARMING
ALOFT TEMPERING CONVECTION AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG
THE SEA BREEZES. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE HIGH-GRADE DEEP MOISTURE (PWAT >
90TH PERCENTILE), DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SMALL HAIL, STRONG DOWNBURSTS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL FADE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. A SECONDARY WAVE OF
SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
EVENING TUESDAY AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PUSHES ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE SE GA ZONES.
ON WEDNESDAY, CONVECTIVE TRENDS MAY END UP QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME A BIT STRONGER AS IT SHIFTS WESTERLY,
KEEPING THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FROM PUSHING BEYOND HIGHWAY 301.
AGAIN, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA, LIKELY ENCOURAGING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING AND EARLY HOURS THURSDAY.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH WILL FUEL AFTERNOON STORMS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-105F WHILE HIGHS PUSH INTO
THE LOW/MID 90S. EACH NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOW 70S AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING WHERE RECENT
RAINFALL OCCURRED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
HOT, HUMID, AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY FUELING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH A DOMINANT GULF SEA BREEZE. STRONG
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN US WILL INTERACT WITH A SUFFICIENTLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DETAILS ARE STILL
A BIT UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT A STRONG TO SEVERE SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND PUSH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE SWEPT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND LIMITING SHOWER CHANCE AND DROPPING DAYTIME
HIGHS BACK TOWARD TYPICAL CLIMO.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF IMPACTS BEING AT SSI AND THE
DUVAL SITES AFTER 20Z, TEMPOS ARE IN PLACE. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD MORE TO THE NORTH
THROUGH MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF
THE LOCAL WATERS, RESULTING IN A WEAK FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON, BEGINNING MEMORIAL DAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR SHORE WINDS AS THE
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS DAILY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND MAY PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS NEXT WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR NE FL BEACHES TODAY
AND TOMORROW, LOW TO MODERATE RISK FOR THE SE GA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK STALLED FRONT ACROSS SE GA AND ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONTS. DESPITE THE DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY LEAD TO
NEW IGNITIONS ACROSS MARION, PUTNAM AND FLAGLER COUNTIES WHERE FUELS
ARE DRIEST. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF COOL FRONT FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 91 69 89 69 / 50 40 50 30
SSI 88 73 87 74 / 30 40 40 40
JAX 94 71 92 71 / 20 20 40 30
SGJ 92 72 90 73 / 30 20 40 30
GNV 95 69 95 71 / 20 10 50 20
OCF 94 69 95 71 / 30 10 50 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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