918
FXUS62 KJAX 262354
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
754 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND ALONG THE COAST AS CONVECTION FORMS WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
IS HEIGHTENED IN CONJUNCTION WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND AREAS
OF CONVERGENCE, ALONG WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES CROSSING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SLOW STEERING FLOW
AND MOIST AIR WITH PWAT LEVELS MEASURING BETWEEN 1.7 AND 1.9
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SOME
AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID
70S FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND
AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
TUESDAY: PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE MORNING,
MAINLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL PREVIOUSLY. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (1
OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, RESULTING IN A WEAK FLOW PATTERN. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SEA-BREAZE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE RESIDES ALONG THE COAST AND OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40-60 MPH. CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A
SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA, PRODUCING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
KEEP THINGS ROLLING PAST SUNSET BUT SHOULD START DWINDLING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S
OVER INLAND AREAS, STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY: THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TUESDAY DESPITE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING ITS TREK NORTH. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA WITH DIURNAL HEATING, SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS WILL PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY INSTABILITY TO BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS THE PREVIOUS
DAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ONCE AGAIN HAS MOST OF THE AREA
(MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10) UNDER A MODERATE RISK (1
OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S
WITH AREAS ALONG THE COAST STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND WITH
COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
RAINY AND STORMY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A DEEP
TROUGH ALOFT BEGINNING TO DEEPEN INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND TRAVEL ACROSS INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY FRIDAY AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
HELP PUSH MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK,
DROPPING PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY AVOIDED AREA
TERMINALS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THE AIRFIELD WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THROUGH ABOUT 02Z IS SSI, THOUGH NOT EXPECTING
MORE THAN VCTS AT THIS TIME. SKIES CLEAR AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT,
WITH VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR CHANCES OF MVFR AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR IFR LOW STRATUS/VSBYS AT VQQ AND GNV EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. A SIMILAR SETUP FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY, YIELDING SGJ WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AND A
PROB30 GROUP ACCORDINGLY. POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR MORE
SITES TO BE ADDED IN FUTURE UPDATES, THOUGH CHANCES AND CONFIDENCE
STILL TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD MORE TO THE NORTH
THROUGH MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF
THE LOCAL WATERS, RESULTING IN A WEAK FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON, BEGINNING MEMORIAL DAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR SHORE WINDS AS THE
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS DAILY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND MAY PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS NEXT WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR NE FL BEACHES TODAY
AND TOMORROW, LOW TO MODERATE RISK FOR THE SE GA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK STALLED FRONT ACROSS SE GA AND ALONG
SEA BREEZE FRONTS TODAY AND TUESDAY. DESPITE THE DOWNPOURS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY LEAD TO NEW IGNITIONS ACROSS MARION, PUTNAM
AND FLAGLER COUNTIES WHERE FUELS ARE DRIEST. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF COOL FRONT FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT THE TAIL
END OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 69 87 71 90 / 50 60 30 40
SSI 73 85 76 89 / 40 40 40 40
JAX 71 91 74 94 / 20 40 30 40
SGJ 72 88 74 92 / 20 40 30 50
GNV 69 93 72 94 / 10 40 10 50
OCF 69 92 72 94 / 10 50 10 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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