654
FXUS62 KJAX 270525
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
125 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 902 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
LINGERING CONVECTION IS CONTINUING WEST OF TRAIL RIDGE AND OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA LATE THIS EVENING AS THE WEAKENING SEA
BREEZE MOVES INLAND, COLLIDING WITH SOME LINGERING WEAK SMALL
SCALE BOUNDARIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST FL, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEING OVER INTERIOR GA BEFORE ANY REMAINING
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FROM ABOUT 03Z ONWARD.
OTHERWISE, A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
OVER THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST
RAINFALL TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
TUESDAY: PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE MORNING,
MAINLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL PREVIOUSLY. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (1
OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, RESULTING IN A WEAK FLOW PATTERN. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SEA-BREAZE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE RESIDES ALONG THE COAST AND OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40-60 MPH. CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A
SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA, PRODUCING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
KEEP THINGS ROLLING PAST SUNSET BUT SHOULD START DWINDLING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S
OVER INLAND AREAS, STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY: THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TUESDAY DESPITE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING ITS TREK NORTH. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA WITH DIURNAL HEATING, SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS WILL PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY INSTABILITY TO BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS THE PREVIOUS
DAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ONCE AGAIN HAS MOST OF THE AREA
(MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10) UNDER A MODERATE RISK (1
OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S
WITH AREAS ALONG THE COAST STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND WITH
COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
RAINY AND STORMY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A DEEP
TROUGH ALOFT BEGINNING TO DEEPEN INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND TRAVEL ACROSS INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY FRIDAY AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
HELP PUSH MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK,
DROPPING PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
CURRENTLY, WEAKENING STORMS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER AS THEY PUSH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT PRIMARY TERMINALS (TAF SITES) THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT BUT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG AT KGNV
AND KVQQ TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ALONG THE
PINNED SEA BREEZE TODAY BUT A SHALLOW SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP
AT NE FL AIRFIELDS WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KSGJ LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA (KSSI) AND OCCUR THIS EVENING AS A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
UNTIL THE SEA BREEZE ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AROUND
8-12 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD MORE TO THE NORTH
THROUGH MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF
THE LOCAL WATERS, RESULTING IN A WEAK FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON, BEGINNING MEMORIAL DAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR SHORE WINDS AS THE
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS DAILY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND MAY PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS NEXT WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR NE FL BEACHES TODAY
AND TOMORROW, LOW TO MODERATE RISK FOR THE SE GA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK STALLED FRONT ACROSS SE GA AND ALONG
SEA BREEZE FRONTS TODAY AND TUESDAY. DESPITE THE DOWNPOURS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY LEAD TO NEW IGNITIONS ACROSS MARION, PUTNAM
AND FLAGLER COUNTIES WHERE FUELS ARE DRIEST. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF COOL FRONT FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT THE TAIL
END OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 91 69 90 70 / 30 40 40 40
SSI 85 74 89 74 / 30 40 40 40
JAX 93 72 94 71 / 30 20 40 30
SGJ 90 73 92 72 / 30 20 50 30
GNV 94 71 94 70 / 30 20 50 20
OCF 94 71 94 71 / 40 20 50 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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