784
FXUS62 KJAX 270659
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
259 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS SE GA...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE LAST BIT OF CONVECTION THAT HAS HELD TOGETHER THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. DRY CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY AND LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED BY
SUNRISE.
FOR TODAY, A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL FOCUS AN
INTRUSION OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, CUTTING AVAILABLE MOISTURE DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH
PWAT UNDER 1.5". THE DRIER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE WILL
LIMIT SEA BREEZE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, MAINLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON, IT'LL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST AS IT DIMINISHES AROUND
OR BEFORE SUNSET.
THE MAIN WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SE GA THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY HOURS WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE RIDES ALONG A PERSISTENT BOUNDARY NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FEATURE WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST INTO AND ACROSS SE GA
AFTER SUNSET. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SHOULD LEAVE ENOUGH FUEL TO SUPPORT A MIX OF SURFACE-BASED AND
ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH THE CAPACITY TO BECOME STRONG OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE, PARTICULARLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
LINGERING REMNANTS OF THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. PRIMARY CONCERNS
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS (40-60 MPH) AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS ALONG THE SE GA
COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A DOMINANT GULF SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD DAY OF HEAT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 100S. WHILE SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT
ISN'T LIKELY, THERE COULD BE PATCHES OF FOG IN AREAS WHERE HEAVY
RAIN OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
HOT DAYS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SW RETURN FLOW INCREASES MOISTURE TO THE
AREA AND CONTINUES A DOMINANT GULF SEA BREEZE REGIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZES EACH
LATE MORNING INTO EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY GIVES WAY TO MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY WITH THE
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ISOLATED STRONG TO PULSE SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM PASSING UPPER
SHORTWAVES AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MERGER NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL SHIFT A COOL FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOIST SW FLOW WILL INCREASE PWATS ACROSS THE
AREA TO ABOUT 2 INCHES ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS BRINGING BENEFICIAL TO POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL
AREA-WIDE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM PASSING
SHORTWAVES ALOFT. COOLER, DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS THE COOL FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW SEASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO AROUND 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
CURRENTLY, WEAKENING STORMS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER AS THEY PUSH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT PRIMARY TERMINALS (TAF SITES) THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT BUT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG AT KGNV
AND KVQQ TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ALONG THE
PINNED SEA BREEZE TODAY BUT A SHALLOW SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP
AT NE FL AIRFIELDS WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KSGJ LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA (KSSI) AND OCCUR THIS EVENING AS A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
UNTIL THE SEA BREEZE ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AROUND
8-12 KNOTS.
MARINE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS TODAY WHILE
A WEAK AND STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES JUST TO THE NORTH. A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. A LIGHT FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STORMS ALONG IT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE LINE OF STORMS.
RIP CURRENTS: LOWER-END MODERATE RISK TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF WEAK STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE
DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY LEAD TO NEW IGNITIONS ACROSS
MARION, PUTNAM AND FLAGLER COUNTIES WHERE FUELS ARE DRIEST. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US RESULTING IN AREA-
WIDE HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS. A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF COOL FRONT FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DROP BEHIND
THE COOL FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 91 69 90 70 / 30 40 30 30
SSI 85 74 89 74 / 30 40 30 40
JAX 93 72 94 72 / 30 20 40 20
SGJ 90 73 93 73 / 30 20 40 20
GNV 94 71 94 71 / 30 20 30 10
OCF 94 71 94 71 / 40 20 20 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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