227
FXUS62 KJAX 271343
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
943 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FAIRLY SMALL AREA OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IS FINALLY DISSIPATING NEAR
AND JUST NORTH OF THE JAX AIRPORT. WE UPDATED FORECASTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAVE SOME LINGERING ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN AND IS SLOWLY
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST, AND APPEARS ITS RELATED TO A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST FL ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN. THIS MAY BE A BIT MORE COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING.
FURTHER NORTH, SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST GA MAINLY NORTH OF WAYCROSS AS 1 OR 2 SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA. TIME FRAME FOR THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE LATER, ROUGHLY FROM 9 PM TO ABOUT 1 AM. IN BOTH
AREAS, MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ABOUT 25 TO NEAR 30 KT OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR, NARROW CAPE, AND DECENT DCAPE. THIS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
HAIL AND A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. NOTICING 500 MB TEMP FROM JAX
SOUNDING AT -5.3C SO THIS MAY RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
CONFINED TO INLAND SOUTHEAST GA WHERE THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE
COOLER AT ABOUT -7/-8C.
MAX TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE, PREVIOUS FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD WITH JUST SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE LAST BIT OF CONVECTION THAT HAS HELD TOGETHER THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. DRY CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY AND LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED BY
SUNRISE.
FOR TODAY, A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL FOCUS AN
INTRUSION OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, CUTTING AVAILABLE MOISTURE DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH
PWAT UNDER 1.5". THE DRIER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE WILL
LIMIT SEA BREEZE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, MAINLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON, IT'LL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST AS IT DIMINISHES AROUND
OR BEFORE SUNSET.
THE MAIN WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SE GA THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY HOURS WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE RIDES ALONG A PERSISTENT BOUNDARY NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FEATURE WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST INTO AND ACROSS SE GA
AFTER SUNSET. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SHOULD LEAVE ENOUGH FUEL TO SUPPORT A MIX OF SURFACE-BASED AND
ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH THE CAPACITY TO BECOME STRONG OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE, PARTICULARLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
LINGERING REMNANTS OF THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. PRIMARY CONCERNS
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS (40-60 MPH) AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS ALONG THE SE GA
COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A DOMINANT GULF SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD DAY OF HEAT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 100S. WHILE SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT
ISN'T LIKELY, THERE COULD BE PATCHES OF FOG IN AREAS WHERE HEAVY
RAIN OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
HOT DAYS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SW RETURN FLOW INCREASES MOISTURE TO THE
AREA AND CONTINUES A DOMINANT GULF SEA BREEZE REGIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZES EACH
LATE MORNING INTO EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY GIVES WAY TO MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY WITH THE
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ISOLATED STRONG TO PULSE SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM PASSING UPPER
SHORTWAVES AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MERGER NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL SHIFT A COOL FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOIST SW FLOW WILL INCREASE PWATS ACROSS THE
AREA TO ABOUT 2 INCHES ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS BRINGING BENEFICIAL TO POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL
AREA-WIDE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM PASSING
SHORTWAVES ALOFT. COOLER, DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS THE COOL FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW SEASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO AROUND 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
LOW STRATUS AND SPORADIC AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE MVFR CIGS AND
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY AROUND 13Z, LIFTING TO VFR THEREAFTER. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO JUSTIFY
PREVAILING OR TEMPORARY CONDITIONS AT ANY SPECIFIC SITE IN NE FL.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AT KSSI
BETWEEN 03-06Z. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL FAVOR WSW AND THEN SHIFT
ESE WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE ADVANCES INLAND.
MARINE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS TODAY WHILE
A WEAK AND STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES JUST TO THE NORTH. A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. A LIGHT FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STORMS ALONG IT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE LINE OF STORMS.
RIP CURRENTS: LOWER-END MODERATE RISK TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF WEAK STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE
DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY LEAD TO NEW IGNITIONS ACROSS
MARION, PUTNAM AND FLAGLER COUNTIES WHERE FUELS ARE DRIEST. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US RESULTING IN AREA-
WIDE HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS. A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF COOL FRONT FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DROP BEHIND
THE COOL FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 91 69 90 70 / 30 40 30 30
SSI 85 74 89 74 / 30 40 30 40
JAX 93 72 94 72 / 30 20 40 20
SGJ 90 73 93 73 / 30 20 40 20
GNV 94 71 94 71 / 30 20 30 10
OCF 94 71 94 71 / 40 20 20 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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