075
FXUS62 KJAX 280534
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
134 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 839 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER REGION TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SE GA THIS EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH, AND LIFT
PROVIDED BY UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
SE GA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. DUE TO A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF, PATCHY FOG
IS EXPECTED INLAND TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S COAST TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION FORMING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND
AREAS OF CONVERSION. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON
THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS AS A RESULT OF THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES BUILDING AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING IN FROM OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FORMING OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES EXTENDING TO INCLUDE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. PATTERN OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD FOR WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
LOWER 70S OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND FOR AREAS NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A TROUGH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE
INHIBITED OVER THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN TO BE
NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND THEN WARM BACK INTO THE
LOWER 90S BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT IN SE GA THIS
MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND SOUTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE
AROUND 15Z. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST
AND ISN'T EXPECTED TO REACH KJAX THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-95 ALONG MERGING SEA BREEZES BETWEEN 19-22Z. ERRATIC GUSTS,
VIOLENT DOWNPOURS, AND DEGRADED VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
FOR AIRFIELDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION WILL
FADE AND SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
FLOW MODULATED BY THE DAILY ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE, AND THEN FLOW
DISTURBED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OFF THE COAST AND
INTO THE AREA WATERS. WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT, AT LEAST
WELL-DEFINED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, AND
PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW-END MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF WEAK STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE
DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY LEAD TO NEW IGNITIONS ACROSS
MARION, PUTNAM AND FLAGLER COUNTIES WHERE FUELS ARE DRIEST. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US RESULTING IN AREA-
WIDE HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS. A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF COOL FRONT FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DROP BEHIND
THE COOL FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN.
OTHERWISE, PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED
OVER INLAND AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 70 89 69 / 30 30 70 50
SSI 90 75 89 73 / 30 40 60 50
JAX 95 72 93 71 / 40 20 60 40
SGJ 93 73 92 72 / 40 20 60 40
GNV 95 71 93 71 / 30 10 60 30
OCF 94 71 92 71 / 20 10 60 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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