362
FXUS62 KJAX 280723
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
323 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY...
NEAR TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
A MOIST, DEEP, AND INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL
LEAD TO A GULF-DOMINANT SEA BREEZE REGIME AND FOCUS THE CORRIDOR OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE
FIRST COAST.
HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT WILL AID AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE FAIRLY WEAK, MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A POCKET OF DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR MAY ENCOURAGE MORE ROBUST
DOWNBURSTS (ELEVATED DCAPE) WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG OR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (40-60 MPH) WITH DEEPER CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOOD RISK, WHILE NOT ZERO, WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH A
PEPPY STEERING FLOW IN PLACE. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 3-6
PM WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC.
AS CONVECTION EXITS TO THE EAST, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE LEFT IN
IT'S WAKE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WESTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WINDS
WILL KEEP FOG FORMATION LIMIT AND FAVOR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
TOWARD THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
AS MENTIONED, HOT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO
THE BEACHES TODAY WITH THE DOMINANT WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS WILL PUSH
INTO THE MID 90S AND CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PUSH INTO
THE LOWER 100S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY DEEPENS AND SWINGS EASTWARD
AS IT PUSHES A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE SE US. CONTINUED MOIST SW
FLOW WILL INCREASE PWATS ACROSS THE AREA TO 1.75-2 INCHES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE INCREASES ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE MERGER LIKELY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM
PASSING UPPER SHORTWAVES AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MERGER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST HOT DAY THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND MAX HEAT INDICES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON FRIDAY, A MOIST,
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, DECENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, AND
ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THESE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FLOODING
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL TO AROUND SEASONABLE ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
COOLER, DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE COOL FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS DRIER AIR WILL
SUPPRESS CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE BACK ACROSS THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BELOW SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RETURN TO ABOVE
SEASONABLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.|
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT IN SE GA THIS
MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND SOUTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE
AROUND 15Z. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST
AND ISN'T EXPECTED TO REACH KJAX THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-95 ALONG MERGING SEA BREEZES BETWEEN 19-22Z. ERRATIC GUSTS,
VIOLENT DOWNPOURS, AND DEGRADED VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
FOR AIRFIELDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION WILL
FADE AND SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING.
MARINE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PINNED
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND FADE AS THEY PROGRESS OFFSHORE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FLOW PATTERN WILL YIELD SIMILAR WEATHER TRENDS ON THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY, WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. A DRIER AIRMASS AND A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A SEA BREEZE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN TO
RETURN AND FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURF BUILDS TO 2-3 FEET BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF A WEAK STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS TODAY AND THURSDAY. DESPITE THE
DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY LEAD TO NEW IGNITIONS ACROSS
MARION, PUTNAM AND FLAGLER COUNTIES WHERE FUELS ARE DRIEST. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE TODAY INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US RESULTING
IN AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS. A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF COOL FRONT FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DROP
BEHIND THE COOL FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 71 88 68 / 30 10 60 40
SSI 91 74 88 73 / 40 20 70 50
JAX 95 72 93 71 / 50 20 60 30
SGJ 93 73 92 73 / 60 20 60 30
GNV 94 71 93 71 / 30 10 50 30
OCF 94 71 93 71 / 30 10 50 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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