160
FXUS62 KJAX 281807
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
207 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST GA, APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT BE LOOK TO BE A BIG PLAYER
TODAY, BUT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ALONG WITH WEST AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZES SHOULD BE PROVIDE CRITICAL ROLES TODAY WITH CONVECTION.
THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST
FL AROUND THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN THIS AFTN, WITH THE 2ND AREA
OVER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA NEAR ONE FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE AIRMASS TODAY IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE BUT LOOKS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CAPE OF ABOUT 2000-2300 J/KG, SHEAR OF ABOUT
20-25 KT, AND DCAPE OF 800 J/KG. TEMPS ALOFT AT 500 MB HAVE
COOLED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT -8.3C AND LOW LEVELS ARE MORE
MOIST. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE MOSTLY SCATTERED CONVECTION IN
TODAY'S FORECAST AND FAVOR THE EAST COAST OF NORTHEAST FL FOR
GREATER COVERAGE (NEAR 60 PERCENT) AS MOISTURE POOLING AND SFC
CONVERGENCE ARE HIGHER IN THAT AREA. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE
EVENING POPS FOR SLIGHTLY FOR HIGHER CHANCES BASED ON SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE MAINTAINING SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
NEAR TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
A MOIST, DEEP, AND INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL
LEAD TO A GULF-DOMINANT SEA BREEZE REGIME AND FOCUS THE CORRIDOR OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE
FIRST COAST.
HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT WILL AID AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE FAIRLY WEAK, MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A POCKET OF DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR MAY ENCOURAGE MORE ROBUST
DOWNBURSTS (ELEVATED DCAPE) WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG OR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (40-60 MPH) WITH DEEPER CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOOD RISK, WHILE NOT ZERO, WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH A
PEPPY STEERING FLOW IN PLACE. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 3-6
PM WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC.
AS CONVECTION EXITS TO THE EAST, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE LEFT IN
IT'S WAKE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WESTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WINDS
WILL KEEP FOG FORMATION LIMIT AND FAVOR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
TOWARD THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
AS MENTIONED, HOT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO
THE BEACHES TODAY WITH THE DOMINANT WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS WILL PUSH
INTO THE MID 90S AND CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PUSH INTO
THE LOWER 100S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY DEEPENS AND SWINGS EASTWARD
AS IT PUSHES A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE SE US. CONTINUED MOIST SW
FLOW WILL INCREASE PWATS ACROSS THE AREA TO 1.75-2 INCHES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE INCREASES ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE MERGER LIKELY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM
PASSING UPPER SHORTWAVES AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MERGER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST HOT DAY THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND MAX HEAT INDICES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON FRIDAY, A MOIST,
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, DECENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, AND
ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THESE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FLOODING
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL TO AROUND SEASONABLE ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
COOLER, DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE COOL FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS DRIER AIR WILL
SUPPRESS CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE BACK ACROSS THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BELOW SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RETURN TO ABOVE
SEASONABLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.|
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
VFR CIGS SO FAR WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AROUND SGJ AT THIS
TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SO FAR
THIS AFTN. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST IN THE NEXT 2-6 HOURS, WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS UNDER
THESE T-STORMS. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THEM AS WELL.
ACTIVITY WILL BE WINDING DOWN AFTER 01Z-02Z AS ACTIVITY MOVES
EAST, WITH STORM MOTION EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 15-20 KT. SOME PATCHY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND AREAS FROM ABOUT
07Z-12Z THURSDAY SO HAVE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT VQQ AND GNV AT
THIS TIME. SOME WEAK CONVECTION MAY BE NEARING GNV BY 18Z THURSDAY
AND WILL BE POSSIBLY ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF.
MARINE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PINNED
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND FADE AS THEY PROGRESS OFFSHORE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FLOW PATTERN WILL YIELD SIMILAR WEATHER TRENDS ON THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY, WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. A DRIER AIRMASS AND A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A SEA BREEZE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN TO
RETURN AND FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURF BUILDS TO 2-3 FEET BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF A WEAK STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS TODAY AND THURSDAY. DESPITE THE
DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY LEAD TO NEW IGNITIONS ACROSS
MARION, PUTNAM AND FLAGLER COUNTIES WHERE FUELS ARE DRIEST. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE TODAY INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US RESULTING
IN AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS. A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF COOL FRONT FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DROP
BEHIND THE COOL FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 71 88 68 85 / 20 60 40 80
SSI 74 88 73 87 / 30 70 50 70
JAX 72 93 71 90 / 30 60 30 70
SGJ 73 92 73 90 / 40 60 30 60
GNV 71 93 71 88 / 10 50 30 70
OCF 71 93 71 88 / 10 50 30 70
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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