865
FXUS62 KJAX 291412
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1012 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE INTO
GEORGIA TO OUR WEST. IF THESE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER, THEY MAY
ARRIVE TOWARDS OUR NORTHERN SE GA COUNTIES AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
REGION BY THE LUNCH HOUR TODAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THEY PASS THROUGH.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PINNED ALONG THE COAST, WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAIN
HAZARDS BEING GUSTY WINDS, FLOODING RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND SMALL HAIL.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED AN MCS THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
EAST- NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY PASS THROUGH SE GA
DURING PEAK HEATING. CONTINUED SW FLOW HAS INCREASED OUR MOISTURE
LEVELS TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH PWATS MAINLY IN THE 1.75-2 IN.
RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST, MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION
ACROSS SE GA AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MERGER ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. SPC HAS INCREASED THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SE GA FOR TODAY. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH
THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING GUSTY WINDS, FLOODING RAINFALL, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. CONVECTION SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATER THIS
EVENING. A FEW PRE- FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO I-75 CORRIDOR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY
AND THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BEING PINNED TO THE COAST, HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN SE GA TO THE MID 90S SOUTH OF
GAINESVILLE. WITHOUT THE RELIEF OF THE SEA BREEZE, HEAT INDICES
WILL RISE TO THE LOW 100S FOR COASTAL NE FL THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
A LATE-SEASON AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE EASTERN
US AND DRAG A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL MIX DOWN AND LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
INFLUENCES, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THIS STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN WAVES ON FRIDAY. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND ON THE GULF BREEZE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE OF
CONVECTION THAT COULD BE QUASI-LINEAR IN NATURE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
SE GA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND THEN ACROSS NE
FL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING.
EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS (40-60 MPH) BUT THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL, PARTICULARLY WITH ROUND 2. SOME TRAINING OF
CONVECTION OR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WILL ELEVATE A LOCALIZED
FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING FRIDAY.
THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 90S AGAIN, EARLY
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY KEEP SOME SPOTS FROM REACHING THE FULL
HEATING POTENTIAL. NO RELIEF IN THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 100S AGAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH SHORTLY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AS NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS
IN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AS MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT, WALL-TO-
WALL SUNSHINE AND AN OVERALL SEASONABLE DAY IS TO BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
A ANOMALOUSLY DRY, DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SCOUR OUT
ANY REMAINING DEEP MOISTURE TO END THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONS TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO SEASONABLE
WARMTH AND BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ON THE FIRST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER. THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES DIVERGE THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT, ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP LOCALLY AND A
GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN; HOWEVER, IF A INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH
DOES INDEED DEVELOP BENEATH AN ABNORMAL CUTOFF UPPER LOW, THOSE
ONSHORE WINDS COULD BE FAIRLY BREEZY. GIVEN THE SLOW MOISTURE
RETURN, BELOW NORMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE DRY AIRMASS AND DEEP
MIXING WILL ALLOW WIDER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES AND ABOVE
CLIMO DAYTIME HIGHS, ESPECIALLY INLAND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SPORADIC LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIFT QUICKLY
THIS MORNING, BY 13Z WITH CUMULUS VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY THE
LATE MORNING RISING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON 17-19Z WITH INTERACTION WITH THE
PINNED ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING 20Z-24Z. THAT SAID, TEMPO GROUPS EXIST FOR ALL TERMINALS
ADJACENT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. OCCASIONAL IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED, POSSIBLE DOWN TO LIFR LEVELS, ALONG WITH MVFR CEILING
DROPS. ACTIVITY WILL FADE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CEILINGS
CONTINUING. LITTLE CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT BUT PATCHES OF LOW
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL FEEL A SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IT IS NOT LIKELY TO PUSH BEYOND KJAX BEFORE
CONVECTIVE INTERRUPTION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE PINNED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AND WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS OFFSHORE. BY FRIDAY,
WEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS OFFSHORE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT. A DRIER AIRMASS AND A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD
ALLOW A SEA BREEZE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN AND FAIR
WEATHER BY SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: WITH EASTERLY SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF 8-9 SECONDS,
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. A DOWNWARD
TREND APPEARS FOR FRIDAY WITH SWELLS SLIGHTLY LOWER AND AN OFFSHORE
WIND FLOW PATTERN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COOL FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND AGAIN AREAWIDE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT
FRIDAY. STRONG PREFRONTAL, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SATURDAY AS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. AREAS OF
HIGH DISPERSION TODAY WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE LEVELS (PWATS 1.75-2 IN.), UPPER SUPPORT
AND SEA BREEZE MERGERS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND ALTAMAHA
RIVER BASIN. MORE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ROLL THROUGH ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A COOL FRONT BUT QPF AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR
MIXING IN. WPC SHOWS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 88 68 87 63 / 70 40 60 30
SSI 88 72 89 69 / 70 70 60 60
JAX 93 71 91 67 / 60 60 60 60
SGJ 93 72 91 70 / 60 60 60 70
GNV 94 71 91 69 / 30 30 60 60
OCF 94 72 90 70 / 30 30 60 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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