103
FXUS62 KJAX 300017
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
817 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 818 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
LINGERING SHOWERS AT CRG AND SGJ WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TOWARDS 01Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 07Z. IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT
VQQ, WITH LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TOWARDS SUNRISE AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. THESE
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN DEVELOPING AFTER 20Z AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS, BUT LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE ARE FOR A
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ONSET, POSSIBLY BY A BROKEN SQUALL LINE
THAT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. PROB30 GROUPS FOR
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND IFR VISIBILITIES DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
WERE PLACED AT EACH TERMINAL. LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARDS SUNRISE,
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS TOWARDS
15Z AT EACH TERMINAL.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
FRIDAY, DEEP WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH
AT 10-15 MPH/ SOLID 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH TO KEEP THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST FL, BUT THE LOW
LEVEL FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK. WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S, MORE ROBUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD FORM BY MID TO LATE AFTN BUT THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE THE
COOL FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL
GA. MAIN THREATS WITH STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST GA LOOK TO BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40-60 MPH AND
WITH THE FRONT WITH ALL THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS POSSIBLE BUT A
TORNADO THREAT ADMITTEDLY IS PRETTY LOW. SPC SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS FOR SOUTHEAST GA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY CONTINUING UNTIL LATE IN
THE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY WEAKER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS
OF HEATING.
SATURDAY, COOL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DOWN THE FL PENINSULA
BUT SOME BRIEF LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING SOUTH OF
LINE ROUGHLY FROM ST AUGUSTINE TO GAINESVILLE. OTHERWISE, WEAK SURFACE
HIGH IN THE REGION AND BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH AND DRIER AIR ON
NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL ENSURE CLEARER SKIES AND MORE MILD
TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES SAT NIGHT WITH LOW BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60-65 DEG
RANGE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR
SEASONAL HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 DEG. LOWS NOT QUITE AS COOL FOR
MONDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
FOR THE MONDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM OVER THE REGION AND THEN TO OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC, WITH
AIRMASS OVERALL REMAINING FAIRLY DRY WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT
LIKELY NOT MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE FOR NORTHEAST FL WED AND
THU THAT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION INLAND AREAS. TEMPS WILL
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR
SEASONAL HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 DEG. LOWS NOT QUITE AS COOL FOR
MONDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
FOR THE MONDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM OVER THE REGION AND THEN TO OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC, WITH
AIRMASS OVERALL REMAINING FAIRLY DRY WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT
LIKELY NOT MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE FOR NORTHEAST FL WED AND
THU THAT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION INLAND AREAS. TEMPS WILL
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG THE THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AS IT BECOMES PINNED
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY THIS
EVENING, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT
REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. BY FRIDAY, WEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL
FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES OVERHEAD. A DRIER AIRMASS AND A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
SHOULD ALLOW A SEA BREEZE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN AND
FAIR WEATHER BY SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: WITH EASTERLY SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF 8-9 SECONDS, A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. A DOWNWARD
TREND APPEARS FOR FRIDAY WITH SWELLS SLIGHTLY LOWER AND AN
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW PATTERN.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH A
QUICK 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME STORMS, BUT OVERALL AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 1 INCH OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 67 89 63 84 / 30 40 30 0
SSI 72 90 68 87 / 70 40 50 0
JAX 71 93 68 89 / 70 40 50 10
SGJ 73 91 70 87 / 40 40 60 10
GNV 72 91 69 89 / 30 50 40 10
OCF 72 90 71 89 / 30 50 40 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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