035
FXUS62 KJAX 180023
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
823 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING, BUILDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS BUILDING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THEN BECOMING MORE DISPERSED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG FORMING OVER INLAND AREAS, DEVELOPING BY
EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS INLAND
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY MERGERS BRINGING THE
HIGHER CHANCES OF 50-60% NEAR AND BETWEEN THE I-95 AND HIGHWAY 301
CORRIDORS GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM. DEEPER CONVECTION WILL
DRIFT NNE UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW THROUGH 10 PM WITH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY GRADUALLY FADING. BY MIDNIGHT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF INLAND FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RECENT RAINFALL OCCURRED. MAYBE SOME LOW STRATUS IN SOME AREAS
WITH ELEVATED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE 70S, NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO VALUES.
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWAT OF NEAR 2 INCHES
FROM THE GOLDEN ISLES TO THE JAX METRO AREA AND NEAR THE I-10
CORRIDOR, LOCALLY HEAVY CAUSING BRIEF FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, INCLUDING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.
WITH SOME DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR, DCAPE HAS INCREASED TODAY
WITH GUSTY WET DOWNBURST POSSIBLE IN CELLS WHERE PRECIP LOADING
OCCURS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING WINDS IN FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH WINDS SHIFTING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SEA-BREEZE COMES IN. PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.3-1.7" WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CREATE AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES OF
20-50% WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING NEAR
HWY-301, AND CHANCES OF 40-80% THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHER
PERCENTAGES NEAR I-75. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOTH DAYS WITH HIGH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT INLAND LOCATIONS, STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE
COAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, DRAPING ITSELF
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA FRIDAY MORNING, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PUSH PWAT VALUES OF
1.7-2.15" OVER THE AREA, INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO 50-90% BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL AND DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC, WITH HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON SCATTERED RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WITH MUCH
LOWER CHANCES. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AT INLAND LOCATIONS, STAYING
SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE DISPERSAL OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
FORECAST SITES BY AROUND 02-04Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MILD AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THEN BUILD FROM OUT OF THE SE-S BY AROUND
16-20Z, WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE EXTENDING INLAND TOWARDS THE
METRO JAX SITES. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY
OF SITES BY AROUND 18-20Z ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY WILL POSITION EAST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SEA BREEZE STORMS ACROSS INLAND AREAS, WITH LESS
COVERAGE ACROSS LOCAL MARINE WATERS EACH EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE INCREASES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE FRONT
EDGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS GEORGIA WITH A RETURN OF SOUTH TO
+SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR ALL LOCAL
BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
SCATTERED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PUSHING THE GULF COAST SEA-
BREEZE INLAND EAST OF HWY-301 AND PINNING THE ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE
NEAR US-17. AN INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS OVER SE GA WILL CREATE
AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION TODAY BY THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY, STARTING NEAR HWY-301 IN
THE AFTERNOON WHERE SEA-BREEZES CONVERGE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE TRANSPORT WINDS
AND CREATE AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK, INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FORM THE NORTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 93 72 92 / 20 30 10 20
SSI 77 90 77 90 / 20 20 10 20
JAX 74 94 74 94 / 20 30 10 40
SGJ 75 91 74 91 / 10 30 10 40
GNV 73 95 73 95 / 30 40 20 60
OCF 74 95 74 95 / 20 30 20 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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