070
FXUS62 KJAX 180609
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
209 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
NEARLY STACKED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL TODAY AND TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. TEMPS ALOFT AT 500 MB TODAY WILL BE CLOSE NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AT -6C TO -7C WHICH IS IN THANKS TO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL, MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL START OUT LOWER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WITH VALUES OF
ABOUT 1.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST GA, AND 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES OVER
NORTHEAST FL. LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT WILL AGAIN BE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AND THEN BEGIN TO BACK SLIGHTLY AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH
INLAND, AND SO WHERE THE BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON MAINLY
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION THROUGH
ABOUT 1 PM NEAR AND WEST OF I-75 ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THE CONVECTION WILL FOCUS ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES, OUTFLOW, AND POSSIBLE COLLISIONS WITH ANY OF THE
BOUNDARIES, MAINLY FROM NEAR AND WEST OF I-95 TO HIGHWAY 441 OVER
SOUTHEAST GA, AND THEN ALONG HIGHWAY 301 IN NORTHEAST FL AND I-75.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE TO BE EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
TONIGHT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
OVER INLAND AREAS ALONG A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE/AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS TO EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR AND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WEAKENING
INSTABILITY.
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S. MAX HEAT INDICES OF ABOUT 100-105 EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
THURSDAY, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL SHUNT EAST OF SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEY THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INFLUENCE WILL PUSH
THE GULF SEABREEZE INLAND BEFORE MERGING WITH THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
BETWEEN HIGHWAY 301 AND US17. MOISTURE LEVELS NEAR NORMAL AROUND
1.6-1.8 INCHES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED STRONG T'STORM MAY FORM ALONG STORM
MERGERS WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SEABREEZE COLLISIONS INTERACT
MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 301.
FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OFF OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAGGING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS AND NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL CREATE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE T'STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY LEVELS OF
-9/-10 CELSIUS WITH CORRESPONDING STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS AND LOW 90S
AT THE BEACHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 70S INLAND. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100-106 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
ON SATURDAY, THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND THE REMOVAL OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE
FRONT TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE OH AND TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE EARLY AND BECOME EASTERLY AS
LOW LEVEL RIDGING REFORMS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THIS PATTERN WILL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WEST OF HIGHWAY 301 AS
THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE PUSHES WELL INLAND.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, RIDGING ALOFT
WILL BUILD OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES, WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REFORMING EAST THE SOUTHEAST US COAST AND
PROMOTING EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GREAT
REDUCTION IN POPS WITH ISOLATED T'STORMS CONFINED TO AREAS WELL
INLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S INLAND AND LOW 90S ALONG I-95 WITH UPPER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S INLAND AND MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
AVERAGE 98-103 DEGREES DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
VFR AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL VSBY PROBLEMS AT VQQ EARLY
THIS MORNING. LIGHT PATCHY RAIN NEAR GNV AT THIS TIME WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE HAVING ANY AFFECTS AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAYTIME, MOSTLY COMMON
FROM 19Z-00Z. AT THIS TIME, PROB30 GROUPS WILL SUFFICE. EXPECT AT
LEAST MVFR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR THE T-STORMS. TONIGHT,
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND THE SITES AFTER 03Z AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR SUMMER WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT AND SEAS OF UP
TO 2 TO 4 FT. MAY SEE SOME EXERCISE CAUTION WIND CRITERIA (SOUTH
WIND UP TO 15-20 KT) FOR THIS EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT NORTHWARD FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW-END MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SURF OF ABOUT 1-3 FT. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
NORTH FLOWING LONGSHORE CURRENT IN THE SURF ZONE GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 92 72 91 73 / 30 20 30 40
SSI 89 77 91 77 / 20 10 30 40
JAX 94 74 94 74 / 30 20 60 30
SGJ 91 75 92 74 / 20 10 60 30
GNV 95 73 95 73 / 50 20 70 30
OCF 94 73 94 74 / 40 10 70 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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