352
FXUS62 KJAX 181219
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
819 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO INCLUDE SPRINKLES AND LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE FL AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHWARD UNDER SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER LA AND THE
CENTRAL GOMEX. MORNING SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER
(PWAT) SHOWS LOWER VALUES OF 1.4 TO 1.6, WHICH IS NEAR THE MEDIAN
FOR TODAY'S DATE OF 1.62 INCHES. THROUGH THE DAY, THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LIFT AND AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM ACROSS
CENTRAL FL TO OVER NORTH FL INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW, CONTINUED WITH RAIN CHANCES OF
30-50% FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AS SEA BREEZES MOVE INLAND AND CONVERGE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TODAY.
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE DRIER TRAILING THE SEA BREEZE, WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AS WATER TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 70S WITH
RECENT UPWELLING AS INLAND HIGHS CLIMB A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY INTO THE MID 90S. WITH ELEVATED DEW PTS, STILL EXPECTED
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEG ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE HAZARDS TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO WEAK STORM MOTION AND MERGING CELL POTENTIAL GIVEN THE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY STEERING < 5 KTS. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE
MEANDERING CELL MOTION, WITH LOCALLY STRONGER CELLS WHERE MERGERS
OCCUR. IN ADDITION TO THE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT, GUSTY WET
DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN HEAVY PRECIP LOADING
POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
THURSDAY, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL SHUNT EAST OF SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEY THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INFLUENCE WILL PUSH
THE GULF SEABREEZE INLAND BEFORE MERGING WITH THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
BETWEEN HIGHWAY 301 AND US17. MOISTURE LEVELS NEAR NORMAL AROUND
1.6-1.8 INCHES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED STRONG T'STORM MAY FORM ALONG STORM
MERGERS WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SEABREEZE COLLISIONS INTERACT
MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 301.
FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OFF OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAGGING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS AND NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL CREATE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE T'STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY LEVELS OF
-9/-10 CELSIUS WITH CORRESPONDING STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS AND LOW 90S
AT THE BEACHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 70S INLAND. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100-106 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
ON SATURDAY, THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND THE REMOVAL OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE
FRONT TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE OH AND TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE EARLY AND BECOME EASTERLY AS
LOW LEVEL RIDGING REFORMS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THIS PATTERN WILL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WEST OF HIGHWAY 301 AS
THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE PUSHES WELL INLAND.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, RIDGING ALOFT
WILL BUILD OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES, WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REFORMING EAST THE SOUTHEAST US COAST AND
PROMOTING EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GREAT
REDUCTION IN POPS WITH ISOLATED T'STORMS CONFINED TO AREAS WELL
INLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S INLAND AND LOW 90S ALONG I-95 WITH UPPER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S INLAND AND MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
AVERAGE 98-103 DEGREES DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY APPROACH VQQ AND GNV WITHIN THE HOUR FROM THE SOUTH AS
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS NORTHWARD. STILL ANTICIPATED VCTS
THIS AFTERNOON IMPACTING INLAND TERMINALS INCLUDING JAX, CRG, VQQ
AND GNV AS SEA BREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPS, WITH LOWER CHANCES (<
30%) AT COASTAL TERMINALS SSI AND SGJ. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
TO INCLUDE TEMPO FOR TS AS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CURRENT RAIN
CHANCES OF 40-50% AT TERMINALS. SSW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
SE AT COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT
TIMES INTO THE EARLY EVENING TRAILING THE SEA BREEZE.
INLAND STORMS FADE NEAR VQQ AND GNV AFTER 00Z, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
BY 06Z AND LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z. 10% CHANCE OF MVFR
AT VQQ AFTER 07Z THROUGH 12Z AND INCLUDING AS PREVAILING BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AFTER 07Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR SUMMER WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT AND SEAS OF UP
TO 2 TO 4 FT. MAY SEE SOME EXERCISE CAUTION WIND CRITERIA (SOUTH
WIND UP TO 15-20 KT) FOR THIS EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT NORTHWARD FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW-END MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SURF OF ABOUT 1-3 FT. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
NORTH FLOWING LONGSHORE CURRENT IN THE SURF ZONE GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 73 91 73 / 30 20 30 40
SSI 89 77 91 77 / 20 20 30 40
JAX 94 75 94 74 / 30 20 60 30
SGJ 93 75 92 74 / 20 10 60 30
GNV 94 74 95 73 / 40 20 70 30
OCF 95 74 94 74 / 40 20 70 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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