778
FXUS62 KJAX 182326
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
726 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WERE STARTING TO POP ACROSS NORTH FL
ALONG THE WEST BANK OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BREEZE, THE GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE AND NEAR A PRESCRIBED BURN IN NORTHERN BAKER COUNTY
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE FL
BUT WITH LESS CONVECTIVE GROWTH ACROSS FLAGLER, PUTNAM AND EASTERN
MARION COUNTIES WHERE SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT SHOWS ONLY 1.2 TO
1.3 INCHES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL FL. NORTH OF THIS DRY POCKET, PWAT WAS BACK UP TO 1.6 TO
1.8 INCHES, NEAR AND JUST ABOVE CLIMO UNDER VERY WEAK SSW STORM
MOTION OF 5-10 KTS. CONTINUED TO FOCUS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OF
40-60% ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES BETWEEN HIGHWAY 301 AND THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR WHERE BOUNDARIES CONVERGE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH SUCH WEAK STORM MOTION, CELL
MERGERS ARE EXPECTED. UNDER THESE DEEPER CORES, GUSTY WET
DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS 40-50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY,
BRIEFING FLOODING RAINFALL. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPPER OFF
GRADUALLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. INLAND FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE THU MORNING
ESPECIALLY WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED WITH LINGERING
DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT. MILD AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING WINDS IN
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH WINDS SHIFTING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SEA-BREEZE COMES IN. PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.3-1.7" WILL CREATE AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES OF
40-80%, WITH THE HIGHER PERCENTAGES BETWEEN HWY-301 AND US-17.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AT INLAND LOCATIONS, STAYING
SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE COAST.
FRIDAY, A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA FRIDAY MORNING, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN
FROM THE EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PUSH PWAT VALUES OF 1.7-2.15"
OVER THE AREA, INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
50-70% BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGES
ALONG AND NEAR I-75. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND, STAYING SLIGHTLY
WARMER ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC, WITH HIGH PRESSURE FILLING
IN AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON
SCATTERED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH MUCH LOWER
CHANCES. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AT INLAND LOCATIONS, STAYING SLIGHTLY
WARMER ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDS THIS EVENING ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWER (VCSH) THROUGH SUNSET, OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT, EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL PATCHY MVFR FOG AT VQQ
FROM 07-11Z. BETTER CHANCES FOR TSRA ACTIVITY AT NE FL TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES SW ONCE AGAIN AND HAVE ADDED IN PROB30
GROUPS FOR TSRA MVFR CHANCES IN THE 18-24Z TIME FRAME, WHILE
SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES EXPECTED AT SSI AND HAVE LEFT OUT THE
PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW. SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH PAST SSI/SGJ BY THE 18Z
TIME FRAME WITH STORMS PUSHING BACK CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL SEVERAL ROUNDS OF TSRA AT
SOME TAF LOCATIONS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THURSDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA FRIDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOCAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND
LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND THURSDAY FOR ALL LOCAL
BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 94 73 93 / 30 30 30 50
SSI 77 90 76 91 / 10 40 40 50
JAX 74 95 74 94 / 10 50 30 60
SGJ 75 92 74 91 / 0 50 30 50
GNV 73 94 73 94 / 10 60 30 70
OCF 73 94 73 94 / 20 60 30 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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