510
FXUS62 KJAX 191743
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
143 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
NEAR TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
A DEEPENING AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW,
BETWEEN A FLATTENING RIDGE AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTH, HAS INITIATED CONVECTION ACROSS NE FL ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR. THE GULF BREEZE AND REINFORCING OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
IT AS IT DOES SO. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ATLC SEA BREEZE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO PUSH INLAND BUT ISN'T EXPECTED TO MAKE IT BEYOND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. DURING THE MID AFTERNOON, THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL
COLLIDE WITH THE ALTC SEA BREEZE RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR,
MAINLY IN NE FL. GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT, A FEW STRONG STORMS OR
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY PULSE UP. THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, STRONG WIND GUSTS (30-55 MPH)
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IN PRONE LOCATIONS.
BEFORE STORM COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG THE BEACHES SITES WILL PUSH TO
AROUND 90 AND LOW 90S INLAND. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ALREADY OVER 100
DEGREES AT THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH TRIPLE DIGITS INLAND
AS WELL.
TONIGHT, MOST OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO FADE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW LINGERING AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SE GA AS OUTFLOW PUSHING IN FROM A DECAYING MCS
INTERACTS WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
COOL TO THE MID 70S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT TRAILS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL PUSH PWAT VALUES OF 1.8-2.2" OVER THE AREA,
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO 30-80% BY THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGES ALONG AND NEAR
I-75. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND, STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG
THE COAST.
SATURDAY, THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY FILL IN AT THE SURFACE SHIFTING WINDS
TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE
ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE TO PUSH WELL INLAND AND CREATE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND STORMS TO FORM ALONG I-75. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW 70S WITH COASTAL
TEMPERATURES STICKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING LIGHTER EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT INLAND LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE ATLANTIC SEA-
BREEZE TO BE MORE DOMINANT CAUSING CONVECTION TO OCCUR FURTHER
INLAND. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW 50%
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND SLOWLY
INCREASING INTO MIDWEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AT INLAND LOCATIONS, STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
BLOOMING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL EXPAND FURTHER
AS IT COLLIDES WITH THE ATLC SEA BREEZE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AROUND 19Z. SHIFTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN, AND POTENTIALLY SMALL HAIL ARE ALL POTENTIAL
CONCERNS WITH PASSING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A DECAYING BOUNDARY MAY CONTINUE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE, WITH PREVAILING LIKELY TO BE VFR.
LOW POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, BUT SHALLOW
FOG CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OU. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEA BREEZE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND DISSIPATES.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS BUT WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS FARTHER OFFSHORE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
RIP CURRENTS: GENERALLY, A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE SEA BREEZE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 73 93 72 / 20 20 30 20
SSI 90 76 90 76 / 30 40 40 30
JAX 93 73 94 74 / 60 40 50 30
SGJ 91 74 91 74 / 60 40 50 30
GNV 93 73 95 73 / 60 40 70 40
OCF 93 74 93 74 / 70 30 80 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page