782
FXUS62 KJAX 192334
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
734 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS SE GA AND PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY
AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH 10 PM AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES, HOWEVER,
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE-OUT A ROUGE SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR WHERE GULF INSTABILITY NOSES INLAND JUST HEAD OF THE
FRONT AND COULD FUEL SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY DRY ELSEWHERE WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS SE GA
TOWARD DAYBREAK WHERE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
WHILE LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS NE FL TONIGHT
KEEPING FOG POTENTIAL LOWER. MILD AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
SEA BREEZE SHOWER AND STORM RISK HAS GENERALLY ENDED AT ALL NE FL
TERMINALS, BUT WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SLIDING SOUTHWARD THIS
EVENING FROM SE GA, CANNOT RULE-OUT A ROUGE SHOWER OR LONE STORM
AND WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS AS NEEDED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
THIS POTENTIAL IS GENERALLY 15-20% FOR NE FL TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z. BEST POTENTIAL OF NEAR-TERM TS OR SHRA (30-40%) THROUGH 06Z
WILL BE AT SSI AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR WITH INCLUSION
OF TEMPO GROUP AS NEEDED. AFTER 06Z, POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
TAPPERS OFF AS MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS LINGERS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION. A RETURN OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN
FRIDAY ALONG BOTH EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES, WITH HIGHER
CHANCES (50-70%) OF TS ACROSS NE FL TERMINALS SUPPORTING VCTS
AFTER 18Z AND WILL LEAVE OUT TS FOR SSI AT THIS TIME (RAIN CHANCES
< 30%).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATES THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWARD THIS
WEEKEND, WITH EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: GENERALLY, A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THE DAILY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
BRING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL EACH AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 93 72 93 / 50 30 20 40
SSI 76 90 76 89 / 40 40 30 30
JAX 73 94 74 93 / 20 50 30 40
SGJ 74 91 74 90 / 20 50 30 30
GNV 73 95 73 94 / 20 70 40 60
OCF 74 93 74 94 / 20 80 30 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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