255
FXUS62 KJAX 200556
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
156 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 08Z AT
GNV. OTHERWISE, PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT VQQ
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL BY
SUNRISE AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST
SEA BREEZES EARLY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHER COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND TOWARDS THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301
AND INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDORS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VICINITY COVERAGE AT
SSI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHILE PROB30 GROUPS FOR BRIEFLY
GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WERE
USED AT SGJ, CRG, AND JAX. TEMPO GROUPS WERE USED DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AT VQQ AND GNV, WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AT GNV, WHERE STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL
AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 03Z SATURDAY. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 5 KNOTS INLAND AND 5-10 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS BY 18Z AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PROGRESSES INLAND,
WHILE WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS DEVELOP AT GNV BY 20Z
AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE CROSSES THE TERMINAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS SE GA AND PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH 10 PM AS DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WANES, HOWEVER, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE-OUT A ROUGE
SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WHERE GULF
INSTABILITY NOSES INLAND JUST HEAD OF THE FRONT AND COULD FUEL
SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY ELSEWHERE
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS SE GA TOWARD DAYBREAK WHERE SOME
SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE WHILE LINGERING DEBRIS
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS NE FL TONIGHT KEEPING FOG POTENTIAL LOWER.
MILD AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATES THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWARD THIS
WEEKEND, WITH EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: GENERALLY, A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THE DAILY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
BRING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL EACH AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 72 94 71 / 30 20 40 10
SSI 90 76 88 77 / 40 30 30 10
JAX 94 74 93 73 / 50 30 40 10
SGJ 91 74 90 74 / 50 30 30 10
GNV 95 73 94 73 / 70 40 60 10
OCF 93 74 94 73 / 80 30 60 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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