299
FXUS62 KJAX 201742
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
142 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT WEAK INSTABILITY
AND GRADIENT MOISTURE CAUSING SOME EARLY RAIN SHOWERS TO POP UP
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. OTHER THAN THAT, THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING PIVOTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT, AND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL STRETCH
OUT ACROSS THE FL/GA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AND MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW AND MID LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH WILL ADVECT A DRIER
AIR MASS INTO SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE PWATS WILL FALL TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES. THIS DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG
THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AS WELL AS ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AT BEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA.
A FEW SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE PREDAWN
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY DUE TO CONVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW OFF
THE NORTHEAST GULF AND THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CONVECTION
IGNITING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST
SEA BREEZES, AS WELL AS OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER AND LAKE GEORGE BREEZES. AS RIDGING ALOFT CURRENTLY
OVER EASTERN TEXAS STRENGTHENS AND STRETCHES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES, STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY, FAVORING
COLLIDING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND PULSING STORMS ALONG THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 301 AND I-75 CORRIDORS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY TENDING TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AND FOCUSING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL TOWARDS SUNSET. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1,000 J/KG FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
STRONGER PULSE-TYPE STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF U.S.-301 THAT COULD
PRODUCE DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40-50 MPH, ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO SLOW MOVING
DOWNPOURS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY CLIMB TO THE MID 90S AT MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
I-10 BOOSTING MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 60S AT INLAND LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST GA
WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSER TO 100. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
AT COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
CONVECTION ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY
GET SHUNTED SOUTHWESTWARD, AND THE DRIER AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST
GA WILL FILTER OVER THE REST OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. MEANWHILE,
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ITS AXIS NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACCELERATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIME REGION, ALLOWING A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE TO
PREVAIL AT COASTAL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. DEBRIS CLOUD COVER WILL
THIN OUT TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, WITH FAIR SKIES OVERNIGHT ALLOWING LOWS
TO FALL TO THE LOWER 70S INLAND, RANGING TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S
AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DRIFTS IN FROM THE WEST TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY
ON SATURDAY AND THEN TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA, LEADING TO LOWER
PWATS AND LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND DURING EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE COAST WILL PUSH
INLAND TOWARDS US-301, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE SEA
BREEZES MERGE NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE AS DIURNAL HEATING LESSENS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
A CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND. BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL FL
COUNTIES, AS DRIER AIR WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHWARD INTO SE GA.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR THE MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS AND LOW 90S
AT THE BEACHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 70S INLAND. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100-106 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,
ALLOWING FOR DRY AIR (PWATS ~1.25" TO 1.5") TO CONTINUE TO
FILTER SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA LIMITING THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF SE GA
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW FOR AN ONSHORE EASTERLY-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH WELL INLAND EACH DAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS
AND SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. INLAND TEMPS
WILL BEGIN NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AT THE START OF THE WEEK (LOW/MID
90S), BUT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO STEADILY
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL (MID/HIGH 90S) BY MIDWEEK. THE ONSHORE
BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST SEA-BREEZES MOVE INLAND AND BEGIN TO
CONVERGE, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD AS DRIER
AIR HAS FILTERED IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGHER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED INLAND TOWARDS THE U.S. HWY-301 AND I-75 CORRIDORS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE LEFT THE TEMPO GROUP IN FOR GNV.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VICINITY COVERAGE AT
SSI. ONSHORE WINDS ARE INCREASING NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS TO
10-15 KNOTS AS THE ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE MOVES INLAND, WHILE
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS DEVELOP AT GNV BY 20Z AS THE
GULF COAST SEA- BREEZE CROSSES THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT WITH BR DEVELOPING AT VQQ AND GNV IN THE PREDAWN TO
EARLY MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
AFTER 03Z TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DEVELOP AS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST
SEA-BREEZES MOVE INLAND AND BEGIN TO CONVERGE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
INLAND TOWARDS THE U.S. HWY-301 AND I-75 CORRIDORS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
VICINITY COVERAGE AT SSI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPO GROUPS
WERE USED DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AT VQQ AND GNV,
WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS DURING
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AT GNV, WHERE
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL AT TAF SITES BY 03Z SATURDAY WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 5
KNOTS INLAND AND 5-10 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY 18Z
AS THE ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE MOVES INLAND, WHILE WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS DEVELOP AT GNV BY 20Z AS THE GULF COAST SEA-
BREEZE CROSSES THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH BR
AT VQQ AT 06Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PRECEDING THIS FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS. THIS TROUGH
MAY DEVELOP WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS ITS AXIS TO
THE NORTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS, RESULTING IN A PREVAILING ONSHORE
WIND FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR
LOCAL WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL
PREVAIL BOTH NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RIP CURRENTS: BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL
COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL TO
CREATE A LOWER END MODERATE RISK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AT AREA
BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TODAY, WITH SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS
SHIFTING TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WILL
CREATE GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES, WHILE FAIR VALUES ARE
FORECAST ELSEWHERE INLAND. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL KEEP DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES GENERALLY POOR AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS TODAY. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS WEEKEND,
WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL ON SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY. ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CREATE FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES ON SATURDAY. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE AND
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING SPEEDS COMBINING WITH ELEVATED MIXING
HEIGHTS TO CREATE GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT INLAND
LOCATIONS, WHILE FAIR VALUES PREVAIL AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 94 71 92 / 20 40 10 30
SSI 76 88 77 88 / 20 20 10 20
JAX 73 93 73 92 / 20 40 10 30
SGJ 74 90 74 89 / 20 30 10 30
GNV 72 94 73 95 / 30 60 10 40
OCF 73 94 73 95 / 30 60 10 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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