667
FXUS62 KJAX 211250
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
850 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO
PUSH WELL INLAND ACROSS NE FL/SE GA THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIER
AIRMASS ALOFT WITH PWATS LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES FROM THE I-10
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD ACROSS SE GA WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED
AT MOST, WHILE PWATS SHOULD RECOVER CLOSER TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES
ACROSS NE FL SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES
INLAND WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER INLAND NE FL. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 90S INLAND, WHILE THE ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S WITH THE EARLIER START TO THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105F RANGE ACROSS NE FL AND
AROUND 100F ACROSS SE GA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN DURING
PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1023
MILLIBARS) CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA, WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDING ITS
AXIS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. MEANWHILE, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DISSIPATING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WAS EXPANDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. LATEST GOES-
EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS HAS ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION, WITH PWATS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ONLY AROUND 1 INCH, WITH VALUES ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AROUND 1.25 INCHES. PWATS WERE A LITTLE
CLOSER TO LATE JUNE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL FL
TO THE SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE AND ST. AUGUSTINE, WHERE VALUES WERE
IN THE 1.6 - 1.8 INCH RANGE. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE
EXISTS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FL, WHERE PWAT
VALUES WERE CLOSER TO 2 INCHES. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS OUR
REGION AS EARLIER DEBRIS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THIN OUT, WITH
CALM WINDS INLAND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO FALL TO
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 08Z,
WHILE COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY, WHILE ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL SHIFT THE RIBBON OF
DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL FL BACK ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD FOSTER SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG INLAND MOVING MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST SEA BREEZES FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. AN UNSEASONABLY DRY
AIR MASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES AT INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SOAR TO THE
MID 90S ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON, KEEPING MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND OR JUST BELOW 100.
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL SHIFT
STEERING FLOW TO NORTHEASTERLY, AND SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND NORTH CENTRAL
FL BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, WHERE COLLIDING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO PULSE AND BECOME STRONG DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL INCREASE
DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES TO AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 1,000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHICH MAY ALLOW PULSING STORMS
TO PRODUCE DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS OF 40-55 MPH, ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTING STRIKES. SLOW STORM MOTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY AT URBAN LOCATIONS SUCH
AS OCALA AND GAINESVILLE. OTHERWISE, A STEADY ONSHORE BREEZE
DEVELOPING AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 AT AREA BEACHES, WHILE LOW TO MID 90S PREVAIL ACROSS
INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 70S WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105.
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE SUWANNEE
RIVER SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. DEBRIS CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT
OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING LOWS TO AGAIN FALL TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WHILE AN ONSHORE BREEZE KEEPS COASTAL
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGING LIFTING
NORTHWARD WILL PLACE OUR AREA IN A DEEPER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
PATTERN BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. AN ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWER OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA, CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO
MOVE WELL INLAND ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. THE MOIST
MARINE AIR MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND MEETS WITH THE GULF
BREEZE. WITH DRIER AIR OVER LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR
INTO SE GA, MOST ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL
FL COUNTIES AND WESTERN LOCATIONS OF NE FL.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER/MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS AND
UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 70S INLAND.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY WELL INLAND
EACH DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWERING TREND IN POPS INTO MIDWEEK
AS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA, KEEPING ANY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPMENT AT A MINIMAL. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SUNNY DAYS DURING THE WEEK AHEAD, WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS,
WITH TEMPS STEADILY INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 90S. BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO WEAKEN,
OPENING THE DOOR FOR A RETURN OF MOIST AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC AND
AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR NE FL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL AS SOME
MOISTURE TRIES TO LIFT NORTHWARD, AND FOR NOW WILL KEEP PROB30
GROUPS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON FOR GNV IN THE 20-24Z TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDS TONIGHT AS WELL WITH THE USUAL CHANCE FOR
PATCHY MVFR FOG AT VQQ LATE TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL LIFT ITS AXIS
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMING
SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. SEAS OF
2 TO 3 FEET WILL PREVAIL BOTH NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RIP CURRENTS: PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL TO CREATE A LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT
ALL AREA BEACHES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WITH BREEZY SURFACE SPEEDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS TO
CREATE FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES INLAND, WITH FAIR
VALUES FORECAST AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. EASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ARE
FORECAST AREA-WIDE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH BREEZY
SURFACE SPEEDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL
EACH AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED MIXING
HEIGHTS TO CREATE GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT INLAND
LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH FAIR VALUES AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS. MARGINALLY HIGH VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL AND PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL THEN BECOME ISOLATED FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10 DURING THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY LENGTHY STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 95 71 94 70 / 10 10 20 10
SSI 88 77 87 77 / 10 0 10 10
JAX 94 73 92 73 / 20 0 20 10
SGJ 90 74 89 75 / 20 10 20 10
GNV 95 72 94 73 / 50 10 30 10
OCF 94 72 95 73 / 60 20 40 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page