238
FXUS62 KJAX 211724
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
124 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
TONIGHT: ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS SE GA AND
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH PWATS LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES AND EXPECT
ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS
EVENING, WHILE MORE SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND NE
FL ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MEETS UP
WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT DUE TO THE SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTION LESS THAN
10 MPH. CONVECTION SHOULD START TO FADE AFTER SUNSET AND COME TO
AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER
70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS INLAND SE GA.
SUNDAY: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION WITH AN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW AND EXPECT A DRIER
AIRMASS TO REMAIN ACROSS SE GA WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS
ACROSS NE FL WITH PWATS SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS SE
GA AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ACROSS NE FL. THE WELL
INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, BUT STILL REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 90S INLAND WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100-105F
RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
NE FL ONCE AGAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
MAIN THREATS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT, SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES STICKING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MONDAY
WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE AREA AND WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. THE WINDS COMING IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL BRING IN
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS SEA-BREEZES CONVERGE INLAND. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST. PEAK
HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 95-102 DEGREE RANGE.
MONDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE UNTIL ABOUT MIDWEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL LOWER THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA UNTIL
MID WEEK AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AT INLAND LOCATIONS. THE ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, INCREASING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S AT INLAND
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVERNIGHT NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
STILL ON TRACK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS (VCSH) HAVE BEGUN TO POP-UP FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL TAF
SITES WITH BETTER TSRA ACTIVITY STILL ON TRACK FOR THE INLAND TAF
SITES AND WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUP AT GNV IN THE 20-24Z TIME FRAME
WHILE RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE E-SE AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH JUST THE USUAL PATCHY
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT VQQ IN THE 07-11Z TIME FRAME. SCT CLOUDS
DEVELOP IN DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY IN THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL LIFT ITS AXIS
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMING
SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURF/BREAKERS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE, AS
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS IS
REPLACED BY AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL TREND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS DOWNWARD AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. FAIR DISPERSIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA TODAY AND WILL IMPROVE TO GENERALLY GOOD
DISPERSIONS FOR SUNDAY AS SOUTHEASTERLY-EASTERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. DISPERSIONS WILL START TO INCREASE AS TRANSPORT WINDS
STRENGTHEN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION
OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA EXPECTED MONDAY AND OVER INLAND AREAS
TUESDAY. MIN RHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 71 94 70 93 / 0 20 0 20
SSI 77 89 75 88 / 0 10 10 20
JAX 73 92 73 92 / 0 10 10 30
SGJ 74 89 74 89 / 10 20 10 40
GNV 72 95 72 95 / 10 30 10 40
OCF 71 95 72 94 / 20 30 10 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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